U.S. stock futures moved lower on Thursday after oil prices jumped, briefly topping $100 a barrel, as worries about tanker traffic disruptions linked to the Iran conflict kept risk appetite muted.
At 06:38 ET (10:38 GMT), futures contracts showed the Dow down 251 points, or 0.5%, the S&P 500 down 28 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 92 points, or 0.4%.
Concerns centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow and critical shipping corridor surrounded on three sides by Iran. The passage carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas output, and vessel operators have increasingly curtailed sailings there - in part to protect crews and because of difficulties securing insurance - effectively stopping much normal traffic through the waterway.
Merchant and container ships in and around the strait have been struck in recent days, raising fears of tighter oil flows. A maritime monitor reported that a third vessel was hit by an unknown projectile after two other ships were struck and left burning off Iraq's coast. In response to the incidents, Iraq and Oman have moved to close oil terminals.
The International Energy Agency warned that the conflict in the Middle East is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The IEA announced its largest-ever coordinated release of strategic oil reserves on Wednesday and cut its annual supply outlook as the war-related disruptions continue to reshape expectations for global crude availability.
Brent crude was trading higher by 5.3% at $96.88 a barrel, after briefly topping $100 in Asian trading earlier in the session. Earlier in the week, the global benchmark surged to near $120 a barrel at its peak.
Market participants also parsed the macro implications of the oil shock. The now more than week-old joint U.S. and Israeli assault on Iran has produced large price swings in recent sessions and is reviving concerns that a renewed energy-driven inflation impulse could complicate the outlook for countries worldwide. Expectations that central banks - including the Federal Reserve - might postpone contemplated interest rate cuts have pushed up bond yields and dimmed stocks' relative appeal.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level so far this year, reflecting investor fears that higher oil costs could spill over to U.S. businesses and consumers. The S&P 500 finished only slightly lower for the day, while the Nasdaq Composite managed a modest gain, helped in part by company-specific results.
Sentiment received a partial lift from better-than-expected results at Oracle, where strong demand related to artificial intelligence data centre activity was cited as a positive factor. U.S. consumer price data for February matched expectations, but the prospect of elevated inflation has become more prominent as the oil rally feeds through to broader price dynamics.
Corporate watch - Adobe and sector pressure
Beyond the geopolitical drivers, traders had their eyes on impending earnings from Adobe. The software company is being watched for how it addresses investor concerns about AI's disruptive potential in the software industry. What was once viewed widely as an industry tailwind has developed into a source of investor anxiety as novel AI tools and plug-ins - including integrations with third-party agents - have prompted questions about future demand patterns for software-as-a-service businesses.
The S&P 500 Information Technology sector, of which Adobe is a part, has declined by more than 3% year-to-date, a notable reversal from 2025 when the index recorded a total return of 24%. Adobe's shares have been pressured, falling more than 17% year-to-date.
Adobe has been proactively integrating AI into its product suite via initiatives such as Firefly and Adobe Express, allowing users to create images and videos more rapidly within Creative Cloud. Management has sought to monetise these developments and has provided full-year fiscal 2026 guidance that topped Wall Street expectations. The company said it expects annual revenue between $25.90 billion and $26.10 billion, and earnings per share in a range from $23.30 to $23.50.
Investors will be evaluating whether Adobe's AI-led enhancements will offset broader sector headwinds and whether the company can sustain the monetisation path outlined in its outlook.
Other corporate developments
Retailer Dollar General also moved markets after its annual comparable sales forecast failed to meet Wall Street expectations, sending the company's shares lower as it continues to struggle to attract price-sensitive shoppers.
Separately, promotional commentary in the market has highlighted that analytics tools evaluate companies like Oracle across many metrics, but investors continue to weigh fundamentals, momentum and valuation amid heightened market volatility.
Implications for markets and investors
The combination of elevated oil prices, tangible disruptions to tanker traffic and attacks on merchant vessels has increased the probability that energy supply constraints will persist into coming months. That, in turn, has altered inflation expectations and influenced rate path assumptions among central banks. The result has been a rise in bond yields and a more cautious stance on equities, particularly for sectors sensitive to rates and input costs.
Investors will be watching forthcoming corporate earnings - including Adobe's release - for indications of how companies are managing demand, pricing power and cost pressures in the current environment.
Key points
- U.S. futures fell as oil briefly surged above $100 a barrel, with the Dow futures down 251 points at 06:38 ET, S&P 500 futures down 28 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 92 points.
- Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on merchant vessels have prompted terminal closures and an unprecedented release of strategic oil reserves by the IEA.
- Adobe's upcoming results and sector-wide concerns about AI disruption are creating pressure on information technology stocks, while company guidance and earnings remain focal points for investors.
Risks and uncertainties
- Continued attacks on vessels and effective stoppages in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil and LNG flows, raising supply-side inflation risks and pressuring energy-sensitive sectors.
- Elevated oil prices may prompt central banks to delay anticipated rate cuts, lifting bond yields and reducing the relative attractiveness of equities, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.
- Company-specific earnings - for example Adobe and Dollar General - could surprise on guidance or results, amplifying sector volatility; the technology sector has already seen notable year-to-date declines.