Stock Markets February 19, 2026

U.S. Futures Hold Narrow Range Ahead of Inflation and GDP Releases

Markets tread cautiously as traders await PCE inflation and preliminary Q4 GDP data after Fed minutes signal hawkish sentiment

By Ajmal Hussain OWL WMT
U.S. Futures Hold Narrow Range Ahead of Inflation and GDP Releases
OWL WMT

U.S. equity futures traded in a narrow band Thursday evening as investors weighed recent Federal Reserve minutes that suggested members remain open to further rate action. Attention has turned to two key economic reports due Friday - the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for December and preliminary fourth-quarter GDP - which will influence the near-term outlook for monetary policy and growth.

Key Points

  • U.S. equity futures traded in a tight range as investors awaited December PCE inflation data and preliminary Q4 GDP figures, both due Friday.
  • Fed minutes from January struck a hawkish note, increasing uncertainty about the long-term path of interest rates and contributing to the prior session's declines.
  • Specific sectors affected included private equity, which fell after a major manager announced asset sales and a redemption freeze, retail via Walmart's earnings miss, and technology amid weakness in software stocks tied to AI disruption concerns.

U.S. stock index futures were little changed late Thursday as traders awaited fresh inflation and growth data that could reshape expectations for the path of interest rates. The cautious tone followed a broadly negative session on Wall Street, where gains in technology shares faded and the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes took on a hawkish tone.

By 19:04 ET (00:04 GMT), S&P 500 Futures had inched up to 6,880.75 points. Nasdaq 100 Futures were higher by 0.1% at 24,881.25 points, while Dow Jones Futures were essentially flat at 49,468.0 points.

Markets entered the evening focused on two major economic releases scheduled for Friday: the PCE price index for December, and preliminary gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter. The PCE measure is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, with the core reading closely watched because it strips out volatile food and energy prices. Economists expect the core PCE to have remained above the Fed's 2% annual target in December, a result that could influence the central bank's near-term interest rate strategy.

The advance GDP report for Q4 is projected to show that the U.S. economy finished 2025 on a relatively strong footing, although growth is expected to have decelerated markedly from the prior quarter. Despite persistent headwinds including softer consumer spending, a lagging housing sector, and ongoing inflationary pressures, GDP growth has stayed positive in recent quarters.

One important driver cited for the continued expansion has been outsized spending on artificial intelligence. That trend has helped underpin growth recently and is expected to persist into 2026, with major cloud and AI infrastructure providers having pledged hundreds of billions of dollars in investment into the emergent technology.


The prior Wall Street session closed lower after the release of the Fed's January meeting minutes, which showed several policymakers discussing the possibility of additional interest rate increases to combat stubborn inflation. While the prevailing market view remains that the Fed will hold rates steady in the near term, the minutes injected greater uncertainty about the longer-term trajectory for rates - a concern amplified by an anticipated leadership transition at the central bank.

Among specific market moves, private equity stocks declined sharply after Blue Owl Capital Inc said it would sell $1.4 billion in assets and freeze redemptions at one of its funds as part of efforts to reduce debt and return capital to shareholders. The announcement prompted broader concerns about credit quality and the sector's exposure to recent equity market losses.

Retail heavyweight Walmart Inc fell 1.4% following quarterly results that missed expectations and a management statement highlighting "substantial uncertainty" around its outlook. A wider softening in technology-related stocks also weighed on the market after a pronounced pullback in software names amid worries about disruption from AI.

Headline indexes ended the session lower: the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 6,861.90 points, the NASDAQ Composite dropped 0.3% to 22,682.73 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 49,395.16 points.

With the PCE and preliminary GDP prints due imminently, investors are positioned for data that could either reinforce the Fed minutes' hawkish read or give markets reason to expect a steadier policy path. Until those reads arrive, futures trading is likely to remain contained and sensitive to any fresh signals about inflation, growth, or central bank posture.

Risks

  • Higher-than-expected core PCE inflation could reinforce the Fed's willingness to consider further rate increases, impacting interest-rate sensitive sectors such as housing and consumer discretionary.
  • A softer GDP print relative to expectations could signal a slowing economy despite recent AI-driven spending, weighing on cyclical sectors and investor risk appetite.
  • Credit and liquidity strains in private equity or asset management firms, highlighted by a large manager selling assets and freezing redemptions, could raise concerns about broader credit quality in financial markets.

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