Futures linked to Canada’s principal equity benchmark moved higher on Friday morning, following a record-setting finish for the S&P/TSX composite index on Thursday. The advance came as bullion and oil prices climbed, boosting commodity-sensitive segments of the Toronto market while investors prepared for important U.S. economic updates later in the session.
By 06:08 ET (11:08 GMT) the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had gained 5 points, roughly 0.3%. On Thursday the broader S&P/TSX composite index closed up 0.6% at 33,594.98, marking a new all-time high that eclipsed the prior session’s peak.
Market snapshot
Rising gold prices supported an outsized advance in the materials sector, which is home to metal mining companies. The materials segment climbed 1.3% as the yellow metal moved higher, feeding through to the wider, commodities-heavy TSX index. Concurrently, pressure on oil supplies tied to geopolitical tensions lifted energy names on the Toronto exchange.
Those commodity moves were a key driver of the market’s record-setting momentum, with the metals and energy groups providing much of the upside amid otherwise measured trading.
U.S. futures and recent Wall Street performance
Across the border, U.S. equity futures were largely directionless as traders awaited important economic releases. At 06:40 ET, Dow Jones futures were down 24 points, or around 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were broadly unchanged.
Major U.S. averages fell in the previous session, pressured by renewed geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and a mix of disappointing corporate earnings. Over the week to date, the S&P 500 was tracking roughly a 0.6% gain, the NASDAQ Composite stood to break a five-week losing streak with a 0.6% advance, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was pacing for an approximate 0.2% decline.
Economic prints in the spotlight
Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of two key data releases scheduled for later in the day. The personal consumption expenditures price index for December - the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge - will be watched closely, particularly the core reading, which is expected to have remained above the central bank’s 2% annual objective for that month. Policymakers and market participants view the PCE data as a factor in near-term interest-rate expectations.
Also on tap is preliminary gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter. Forecasts referenced by market participants suggest the U.S. economy concluded 2025 on solid footing, though growth is expected to have moderated noticeably from the prior quarter. Despite indicators of cooler consumer spending, a weak housing market, and persistent inflationary pressures, GDP growth has stayed positive in recent quarters.
That resilience in output has been attributed in part to heavy investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Wall Street’s major AI-focused cloud and internet companies - often referred to as hyperscalers - have committed hundreds of billions of dollars to AI-related spending, a trend market observers expect to continue into 2026.
Private credit concerns and corporate developments
The private credit market drew attention after Blue Owl Capital said it will sell $1.4 billion in assets and freeze redemptions at one of its funds to reduce leverage and return capital to shareholders. The firm’s move prompted questions about broader credit quality and how recent equity losses may be affecting exposure across the private credit landscape.
Investors are also scrutinizing potential lender exposure to publicly traded software companies, which have faced selling pressure amid investor concerns about disruptions stemming from the rollout of new artificial intelligence models.
Separately, market participants will be watching the U.S. Supreme Court for a possible ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a decision that could carry implications for trade policy and sectors sensitive to tariffs.
Commodities update
Oil prices slipped modestly on the day but were on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks, propelled by escalated tensions between the U.S. and Iran and attendant supply concerns. Brent futures were trading 0.3% lower at $71.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $66.22 a barrel. Both contracts hovered near their highest levels since early August and were set to post roughly a 6% weekly gain.
Heightened rhetoric from U.S. political leadership - including warnings that "really bad things" could occur if Iran does not reach an agreement on its nuclear activities within a 10-15 day window - raised the specter of military action. Market participants noted that any escalation involving Iran, a major OPEC producer, could imperil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint that handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments.
Gold prices extended earlier gains amid the renewed geopolitical uncertainty. At 06:53 ET, spot gold was reported up 0.5% at $5,020.47 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.8% to $5,038.80 per ounce. The yellow metal has rebounded sharply since mid-week, reversing earlier losses as geopolitical worries resurfaced. Trading volumes were light in part because Chinese markets were closed for Lunar New Year holidays.
Outlook
With the TSX riding commodity-driven strength and U.S. markets treading water ahead of inflation and growth data, investors face a mix of macro and geopolitical drivers. Key economic readings and developments in the private credit space are likely to shape sentiment in the near term. Market participants will be monitoring incoming data and corporate disclosures for clues on the trajectory of interest rates, growth, and lending risks.