Piper Sandler cautioned investors against hasty purchases after the most recent market rebound, saying the recovery looks fragile despite the uptick. Analyst Craig Johnson told clients to remain wary and to avoid "tripping" on dip-buying, noting that conviction behind the rally has been limited.
The firm pointed out that both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq remain trading below their 50-day moving averages, a technical condition that, in Piper Sandler's view, leaves the door open for another downward leg. The bounce that began earlier in the week showed little follow-through, with major indexes relinquishing nearly half of their gains by Tuesday afternoon.
Given that environment, Piper Sandler recommended investors take advantage of the relief rally to reduce exposure to laggards, particularly in the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors, instead of aggressively chasing the bounce. The firm described the market as a "rotational bull market" that can still reward selective dip-buying, but emphasized that momentum indicators are cooling and measures of breadth and trend have started to weaken.
Energy appeared as a notable exception to the broader cautionary tone. The sector led gains as crude oil advanced, and Johnson highlighted Energy's continued improvement, supported by crude's setup for a breakout above $66. At the same time, Piper Sandler noted several large-cap stocks have pushed their relative strength index readings into oversold territory, which could create the conditions for a short-lived relief rally.
Despite those pockets of potential, the firm advised investors to remain vigilant and avoid overcommitting to rallies that lack clear quality and momentum. The mixed technical signals - indices below short-term moving averages, cooling momentum indicators, and easing breadth - form the basis for Piper Sandler's recommendation to prioritize trimming weaker positions over adding to them at current levels.
Clear summary: Piper Sandler warns the recent rally is fragile, with major indexes below 50-day moving averages and momentum cooling. The firm suggests trimming lagging Tech and Discretionary names while noting Energy is a standout amid crude's push toward $66.