Stock Markets February 20, 2026

Nvidia Earnings and Software Reports Loom as Next Tests for an AI-Sensitive Market

Investors await Nvidia’s fiscal update and software earnings as AI-related worries have dented early 2026 gains

By Jordan Park NVDA MSFT AMZN CRM INTU
Nvidia Earnings and Software Reports Loom as Next Tests for an AI-Sensitive Market
NVDA MSFT AMZN CRM INTU

The market is bracing for Nvidia’s fiscal fourth-quarter report and a slate of software earnings that could shape sentiment for AI-exposed stocks. Nvidia’s results and CEO commentary are in focus after heavy gains in recent years, while software firms face pressure amid concerns that artificial intelligence will disrupt their business models. Broader indexes have been supported by sector rotation even as megacap technology names show mixed performance so far in 2026.

Key Points

  • Nvidia’s fiscal fourth-quarter report and CEO comments are central near-term catalysts for a market sensitive to AI developments.
  • Major software earnings, including Salesforce and Intuit, will be closely watched as the S&P 500 software and services index has fallen roughly 20% year-to-date.
  • Market breadth has been uneven: while megacap tech names have struggled in 2026, rotation into energy, industrials and consumer staples has helped support major indexes.

Investors are turning their attention to Nvidia Corp as the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results approach, seeking a stabilizing signal for a U.S. stock market that has experienced volatility tied to AI-related concerns. Nvidia’s report, due on Wednesday, will arrive alongside a series of tech-sector quarterly disclosures that include major software providers whose businesses have come under scrutiny as artificial intelligence reshapes competitive dynamics.

The semiconductor giant’s earnings come after a rocky start to 2026 for heavyweight technology stocks and other megacaps that have driven indexes higher in recent years. As these names show uneven performance, traders are looking for concrete information from firms at the center of AI infrastructure and from software companies facing questions about how AI will affect their revenue models.

Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, noted that AI hyperscalers are expanding capital expenditure to build data centers and related infrastructure that frequently utilize Nvidia’s products, creating conditions for potentially robust results for the chipmaker. "The expectation for outsized results for Nvidia has been a persistent theme over the past few years," Norton said. "And so it’s hard for Nvidia to surprise when everyone expects it to surprise."

At the index level, the broad S&P 500 had recorded a modest 0.2% gain for the year, though beneath that headline figure there have been substantial sectoral swings. Stocks in software, wealth management and real estate services have been hit hard on fears they may be vulnerable to AI disruption, contributing to uneven performance across the market.

Nvidia specifics and market sensitivity

Nvidia’s share price surged more than 1,500% from late 2022 through the end of last year. In 2026 the stock has been relatively flat by comparison, rising about 0.8% as of Thursday. Other members of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" have not fared as well this year; Microsoft’s shares were down more than 17% in 2026, and Amazon was off about 11%.

The scale of Nvidia’s influence on major market gauges is notable: the company accounts for a 7.8% weighting in the S&P 500. Analyst estimates compiled by LSEG show expectations for Nvidia’s fiscal fourth quarter calling for a 71% rise in earnings per share on revenue of $65.9 billion. For the coming fiscal year, the average analyst forecast points to earnings of $7.76 per share, a projected 66% increase versus the prior year.

Yet the analyst community’s views are dispersed. Melissa Otto, head of research at S&P Global Visible Alpha, highlighted the breadth of estimates, with the low end at $6.28 per share for fiscal year EPS and the high at $9.68, according to LSEG. "If the bulls are right, then the stock is looking probably not too expensive," Otto said. "If the bears are right...it’s not that cheap."

Investors will also scrutinize remarks from Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, on the company’s quarterly call. Comments from Huang could carry implications beyond Nvidia itself, influencing perceptions of hyperscalers that have increased infrastructure spending but whose returns on that capital have attracted investor scrutiny. "Jensen has to come out and show his confidence in his own customers," said Nick Giorgi, chief equity strategist at Alpine Macro. "The fact that to this point, Nvidia has been a cheerleader for their biggest customers is actually what you should want as an investor in this whole ecosystem."

Software earnings and the wider calendar

Beyond Nvidia, the coming week’s schedule includes quarterly reports from major software firms such as Salesforce and Intuit, which will be watched closely given the sector’s recent stress. The S&P 500 software and services index had fallen about 20% so far this year, amplifying the importance of upcoming updates for the group.

King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management, called the week "pretty important for software," noting that while selling across the group appears excessive in aggregate, certain software companies will need to demonstrate clear adaptation and innovation to address AI-related disruption fears.

AI infrastructure players Dell and CoreWeave are also set to report, while results from retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s will arrive as fourth-quarter earnings season winds down. Investors will factor in President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday as an additional event that could influence market sentiment in the near term.

Market breadth and sector rotation

Although technology has struggled, indexes have found support from a rotation into sectors that were less favored in the prior year, including energy, industrials and consumer staples. "It’s kind of a perplexing market," Norton said. "Everything that worked in 2025 is now having a hard 2026. And what was left behind in 2025 is working in 2026."

As the market navigates these crosscurrents, Nvidia’s financial results and the accompanying commentary - as well as software companies’ quarterly updates - are likely to be pivotal in shaping investor expectations about the speed and scope of AI-related disruption across industries.


Risks

  • Disappointing results or cautious guidance from Nvidia could amplify volatility, given its large 7.8% weighting in the S&P 500 - impacting broad market indexes and technology sector sentiment.
  • Software companies may face continued share-price pressure if investors judge them vulnerable to AI disruption, posing downside risk for the software and services sector.
  • Hyperscaler capital spending has attracted scrutiny over returns; lack of clear confidence from Nvidia’s CEO in customers could increase concerns about returns on AI-related infrastructure investments.

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