Outlook
Nutrien projects stronger demand for potash in 2026 despite an environment of squeezed farm margins and cutbacks in some fertilizer categories. Speaking on the company's fourth-quarter financial results conference call, management said several factors should underpin a recovery in potash volumes next year.
Drivers behind expected demand
The company pointed to large crops in 2025 that removed substantial amounts of potash from soils, creating a need for replenishment. Nutrien also highlighted a reduced autumn application window in the United States as a factor that will push buying into the next season. Management emphasized potash's pricing relative to other fertilizers as a further reason growers are likely to favour it when they decide how to allocate limited inputs.
North American potash sales will be "driven by the need to replenish soil nutrients following a record crop and a shortened fall application window," said Nutrien CEO Ken Seitz.
Regional patterns
The company cited differing demand dynamics across key markets. In Australia, favourable weather is expected to encourage farmers to purchase potash. By contrast, retail farm product sales in Brazil remain pressured by low farm profitability, prompting growers there to delay purchases as long as possible, Seitz said.
Fertilizer mix and farmer decision-making
Nutrien noted that while farmers worldwide are contending with low grain prices and fertilizer costs that have eased from the post-pandemic spike, the residual squeeze on margins is prompting selective input use. U.S. growers are expected to trim corn acreage this year, with high nitrogen prices identified as one possible contributor to that decision.
The firm and some analysts see a particular tendency for phosphate application to be reduced in the near term. Because phosphate can remain in the soil beyond the season it is applied, growers can sometimes postpone purchases. That flexibility is not generally available with nitrogen, which typically needs to be applied each season.
Seitz said he does not anticipate declines in potash use. He pointed to potash as the least expensive of the primary fertilizers and reiterated that large 2025 crops removed much of the nutrient from soils. Farmers operating with tight or negative margins, he added, will still aim to maximise yields and therefore prioritise the inputs that support larger crops.
"Their focus is very much on yield," said Seitz.
Implications
Nutrien's outlook suggests a divergence within fertilizer demand next season: potash volumes are expected to firm while phosphate purchases may be deferred, influenced by regional profitability and agronomic characteristics of each nutrient. The company flagged Brazil and the United States as notable regions where these dynamics are playing out differently.