Traders head into Thursday, February 20, 2026, facing a concentrated stream of U.S. data that includes the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure and the latest estimate of gross domestic product. The Core PCE Price Index and GDP, both due at 8:30 AM ET, sit at the top of the calendar, with a clutch of sector-level indicators arriving throughout the morning and into the afternoon.
The releases span inflation, output, manufacturing and services activity, housing, consumer sentiment, and several Fed officials’ public remarks. Together they provide multiple lenses on price pressures, growth dynamics and demand across parts of the economy.
Major economic events to watch
- Core PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET): Expected at 0.3%, rising from the prior 0.2%. The Core PCE metric excludes volatile food and energy prices and serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
- GDP (8:30 AM ET): Forecast at 3.0%, down from the previous 4.4%. GDP represents the broadest measure of economic activity and is a principal gauge of the economy’s overall health.
- Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET): Expected to remain at 52.4. The purchasing managers index for manufacturing signals expansion when readings are above 50.
- Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast at 53.0, up from the prior 52.7. This index measures activity within the services sector, which constitutes the largest share of the U.S. economy.
- New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Expected at 732K, a small decline from the previous 737K. The data track new single-family home sales and offer a snapshot of housing market demand.
Additional releases and readings scheduled for the morning
- Personal Spending (8:30 AM ET): Forecast at 0.4%, down from the prior 0.5%. This series measures changes in consumer expenditures, the primary driver of economic activity.
- GDP Price Index (8:30 AM ET): Expected at 3.2%, down from 3.7% previously. The GDP price index captures price changes across all components of GDP.
- Core PCE Prices (8:30 AM ET): Forecast at 2.60%, down from the previous 2.90% on a quarterly basis; this series excludes food and energy prices.
- Core PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) (8:30 AM ET): Expected at 2.9%, up from 2.8% previously. This shows the annual change in core consumer prices.
- PCE Price Index (Month-over-Month) (8:30 AM ET): Forecast at 0.4%, up from the prior 0.2%. This measures the monthly change in consumer prices.
- PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) (8:30 AM ET): Expected to remain at 2.8%, unchanged from the prior reading, reflecting the annual change in overall consumer prices.
Other scheduled items and Fed commentary
- S&P Global Composite PMI (9:45 AM ET): The previous combined reading across manufacturing and services was 53.0.
- FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (9:45 AM ET): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak, an appearance that may offer signals about monetary policy direction.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET): Forecast at 57.3, up from 56.4. This survey gauges consumer confidence in prevailing economic conditions.
- Michigan Consumer Expectations (10:00 AM ET): Expected at 56.6, down from 57.0. This component targets households’ outlook for future economic conditions.
- New Home Sales (Month-over-Month) (10:00 AM ET): The prior monthly change showed a 0.1% decline; this series measures the month-to-month percentage change in new home sales.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (10:00 AM ET): Expected to remain at 3.0%. The GDPNow model provides an updated run-rate estimate of current-quarter GDP growth.
- Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (1:00 PM ET): The previous count stood at 409; this weekly tally serves as a leading indicator for demand for oil products.
- U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (1:00 PM ET): The previous total rig count was 551, measuring drilling activity across the United States.
- Fed Logan Speaks (1:15 PM ET): Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak and may provide further perspective on the policy outlook.
- CFTC Speculative Positions (3:30 PM ET): Reports on speculative positions for various commodities and indices will be released, detailing futures market positioning by speculative traders.
Additional data items listed for the day
- Personal Income (8:30 AM ET): Expected at 0.3%, unchanged from the previous reading. This series measures changes in total income received by consumers.
- Real Personal Consumption (8:30 AM ET): The previous reading was 0.3%; this series tracks inflation-adjusted consumer spending.
- Real Consumer Spending (8:30 AM ET): The prior reading was 3.5%; this also measures inflation-adjusted household spending.
- GDP Sales (8:30 AM ET): The previous reading was 4.5%; this GDP component focuses on final sales.
- PCE Prices (8:30 AM ET): The prior reading for PCE prices was 2.8% and measures price changes for consumer expenditures.
- Dallas Fed PCE (10:00 AM ET): The previous reading was 1.50%; this series is an alternative measure of core inflation.
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (10:00 AM ET): Forecast at 3.5%, down from 4.0% previously, reflecting consumers’ inflation expectations over the next year.
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (10:00 AM ET): Expected at 3.4%, up from 3.3%, reflecting longer-run consumer inflation expectations.
- Michigan Current Conditions (10:00 AM ET): Forecast at 58.3, up from 55.4. This component measures consumers’ assessments of present economic conditions.
- CFTC Speculative Positions (3:30 PM ET): Separate reports on speculative positions for commodities will provide insights into futures-market trader positioning.
Market participants will use this compressed set of indicators to assess where inflation stands, how fast the economy is growing, and how activity differs across manufacturing, services and housing. The Core PCE Price Index and GDP are the pivotal pair at 8:30 AM ET, followed by PMI readings and housing figures that will round out the picture of sector-level momentum.
For a consolidated view of the day’s schedule, market participants can consult an economic calendar for updated release times and subsequent revisions.