Stock Markets February 20, 2026

Citi Reorients Global Allocations, Shifts U.S. Weight Toward Small Caps

Bank keeps an overall equity overweight while trimming China and dialing back tech exposure amid AI-related hedging

By Priya Menon
Citi Reorients Global Allocations, Shifts U.S. Weight Toward Small Caps

Citi's February 2026 House Views note says liquidity remains supportive of risk assets, but rising concerns about artificial intelligence have prompted the bank to adopt hedges. The firm stays overweight equities overall, reallocates half of its U.S. exposure into small caps, trims China and adjusts sector weights away from megacap growth toward industrials and a more balanced materials stance.

Key Points

  • Citi retains an overall equity overweight but will reallocate half of its U.S. allocation into small-cap stocks, reducing concentration in the largest technology names.
  • The bank implements portfolio hedges - a credit underweight and a duration overweight - citing AI-related risks and suggesting U.S. rates can act as a hedge against an AI bubble or labor market dislocation.
  • Regionally, Citi remains overweight U.S. and Japanese equities, will "cut China," and reduces its U.K. underweight to 50 percent; sector moves include downgrading technology and consumer discretionary, upgrading industrials, and moving materials to neutral.

Citi's latest House Views, released in February 2026, keeps the bank constructive on equities while changing regional and sector exposures to reflect what its economists call a "Goldilocks view." The note signals that liquidity "likely remains plentiful, favoring risky assets," yet heightened uncertainty around artificial intelligence has led Citi to preserve specific defensive positions.

The bank is maintaining an overall overweight in equities but is recalibrating where that equity exposure sits. In the U.S., Citi will "move half of the US allocation into small caps," broadening away from the largest technology companies and increasing exposure to smaller-capitalization stocks.


Portfolio-level hedges and rationale

To balance risk, Citi is positioning portfolios with "a credit underweight, as well as a duration overweight." The bank argues that elevated U.S. rates "will work as a hedge against a bursting AI bubble or against an AI-driven labor market dislocation." The note also suggests that in this environment "risk-parity portfolios may be rehabilitated."

"Likely remains plentiful, favoring risky assets," and "rising concerns around artificial intelligence justify maintaining certain hedges," the note states.


Regional and sector changes

Citi says it remains overweight U.S. and Japanese equities while making reductions elsewhere. The bank will "cut China" and is narrowing its U.K. underweight to 50 percent.

On sector weights, Citi is moving away from the megacap growth trade. The firm has downgraded technology to neutral and lowered consumer discretionary to underweight. Conversely, industrials have been upgraded to overweight, and materials moved to neutral.

Fixed income and commodities positioning was also adjusted. Citi stays underweight credit and reports a more balanced stance in commodities after taking profits in base metals, while remaining neutral on precious metals and energy.


Implications

The note outlines a strategy that preserves a constructive stance on risk assets but layers in protections tied to rate exposure and credit underweighting. It shifts U.S. exposure toward smaller companies and rotates sector weights to favor industrials and a neutral materials position, while trimming China exposure and dialing back the most growth-oriented sectors.

Risks

  • Rising concerns around artificial intelligence - Citi explicitly cites the potential for a "bursting AI bubble" and an "AI-driven labor market dislocation," which underpins its decision to retain hedges (affecting technology and labor-sensitive sectors).
  • Reliance on U.S. rate behavior - the bank's duration overweight assumes U.S. rates will "work as a hedge," introducing exposure to interest-rate outcomes that could affect fixed income and rate-sensitive equities.
  • Commodity-positioning uncertainty - after taking profits in base metals and adopting a more balanced stance, commodity price moves could alter the effectiveness of recent profit-taking and neutral positions in precious metals and energy.

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