Brazilian authorities are considering a plan that would set a floor on annual beef export allocations to China, stipulating that each approved company would receive at least 8,000 metric tons per year, according to a legal opinion seen by Reuters.
The opinion, prepared by law firm Barral Parente Pinheiro on February 5 for industry group ABIEC, proposes individual quotas as a way to keep exports viable for smaller meat processors after Beijing introduced safeguard measures that add a 55% tariff on shipments exceeding quota levels. The additional tariff, which applies to several key suppliers including Brazil, came into effect on January 1 and is scheduled to remain in place for three years.
Forecasted Chinese import volumes and Brazil's share
China set the total import quota under its safeguard measures at 2.7 million tons for 2026, a figure that is roughly aligned with the 2.87 million tons the country imported in 2024. Within that framework, Beijing allocated quotas for Brazil of 1.106 million tons in 2026, 1.128 million tons in 2027 and 1.151 million tons in 2028.
Mechanics proposed in the legal opinion
The legal document recommends multiple elements for implementing individual company quotas. The central proposal is a guaranteed minimum allotment of 8,000 tons per year per exporter. The text frames this as a measure "to make exports viable for smaller meat processing plants," directly quoting the opinion prepared for ABIEC.
It also sets out a technical reserve equal to 3% of 1.1 million tons - equivalent to 33,000 tons - aimed at accommodating companies that did not export in 2025 but become eligible in 2026. The reserve is described in the opinion as intended for "new exporters who did not export in 2025 but are authorized to export in 2026."
To promote flexibility, the opinion includes a mechanism to increase an individual company's quota if other exporters are unable to complete their shipments.
Allocation method and timetable
Under the proposal, quotas for 2026 would be based on the volumes individual companies exported in 2025. From 2027 onward, the quota calculation would shift to a two-year moving average of the volumes actually exported, a formula the document says will "promote gradual adaptation and long-term stability."
Government process and industry response
An official at the Agriculture Ministry recently indicated the government intends to assign export quotas to individual beef exporters in order to regulate shipments. The plan must be approved by Brazil's Foreign Trade Chamber (CAMEX) before it can be implemented.
The legal opinion notes the plan has broad support within the industry but not unanimous backing. A memo by Luis Rua, foreign trade secretary at the Agriculture Ministry, forwarded to CAMEX on February 6 argues that regulating shipments would prevent a scramble by Brazilian exporters to sell beef to China.
ABIEC declined to comment on the legal opinion. The document now sits within the government review process at CAMEX, where its elements - including minimum company quotas, the technical reserve and the reallocation mechanism - would be considered before any official policy is adopted.