Berenberg has moved ALSO Holding AG (SIX:ALSN) from a Buy rating to Hold and lowered its target price to CHF165 from CHF320, pointing to what it describes as meaningful downside risk to the company's mid-term guidance in the current market environment.
The decision follows ALSO’s fiscal 2025 results, released on February 17. For the year, ALSO reported EBITDA of EUR286 million, a figure that Berenberg notes sits at the lower bound of management’s guidance. The company’s net income came in about 23% below consensus estimates. In reaction to the results, ALSO’s shares dropped by more than 30% on February 17.
Berenberg has transferred coverage of ALSO to analyst Chiara Di Giammaria.
Market and operational headwinds
The bank flagged several pressures weighing on ALSO’s core distribution activities. Near-term shortages of components and lengthening replacement cycles are affecting the company’s transactional hardware and software distribution business, which accounts for 72% of sales. Berenberg described that category as ALSO’s lowest-growing and lowest-margin segment, citing historical annual growth of just 0.5%.
Berenberg also pointed to broader industry forecasts showing declines in PC shipments, noting the International Data Corporation’s projection of an 11.3% drop in PC shipments for 2026. The research house added that commercialization of AI products is developing slowly, with customers transitioning gradually from experimentation to full deployment.
According to Berenberg, ALSO has experienced negative growth since 2021, and the firm said the uptick in 2025 was driven by the acquisition of Westcoast. For the period 2026-2028, Berenberg models a sales compound annual growth rate of 1.8% for ALSO.
Assessment of mid-term guidance
ALSO has set a mid-term EBITDA target range of EUR425 million to EUR525 million. Berenberg’s own estimate for 2029 stands at EUR384 million. The broker noted that meeting ALSO’s guidance would require an EBITDA compound annual growth rate of roughly 14% over 2025-2029, compared with an 8% annual growth rate over the past decade.
To reach the mid-term goal, Berenberg says ALSO would need to expand EBITDA margins to between 2.8% and 3.5%. The firm regards that outcome as challenging given ALSO’s historical margins, which peaked at 2.5% and fell to 2.1% in 2025.
These factors underpinned Berenberg’s revised rating and reduced price target for the stock, reflecting the broker’s view that mid-term targets face significant execution risk under current market conditions.