Economy February 19, 2026

U.S. Trade Panel Opens Probe of USMCA Auto Rules, Citing Supply-Chain and Technology Shifts

Investigation will assess economic impact, competitiveness and relevance of strengthened regional content thresholds for vehicles

By Caleb Monroe
U.S. Trade Panel Opens Probe of USMCA Auto Rules, Citing Supply-Chain and Technology Shifts

The U.S. International Trade Commission has launched a formal investigation into the automotive rules of origin under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The probe will assess the rules' effect on the U.S. economy, competitiveness and whether recent technology changes affect their relevance. The review examines tighter regional value content requirements that altered supply chains and set thresholds for duty-free access.

Key Points

  • The ITC has opened an investigation into USMCA automotive rules of origin to assess economic impact, competitiveness and relevance given recent technology changes.
  • USMCA raised regional value content requirements - 75% North American content for duty-free access; passenger cars require 40% US/Canada content of specified core parts; pickup trucks require 45%.
  • Automakers and trade officials are engaged: major manufacturers have urged extension of USMCA and the U.S. Trade Representative's Office has signaled potential reforms to rules of origin for industrial goods.

The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) announced on Thursday that it has opened an investigation into the automotive rules of origin established under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, known as USMCA. The ITC said the probe will examine the rules' impact on the U.S. economy, their effect on U.S. competitiveness, and their relevancy in light of recent technology changes.

The USMCA rules of origin raised the regional value content thresholds required for vehicles assembled in the three-member bloc to qualify for duty-free treatment. That change obliged North American manufacturers to source a greater share of inputs from within the USMCA region, a policy shift that has led to substantial adjustments in automotive supply chains.

Under the USMCA framework, manufacturers must meet a 75% North American content requirement to secure duty-free access to the U.S. market. For passenger cars, at least 40% of content must be manufactured in the U.S. or Canada, measured against a specified list of "core parts" that includes engines, transmissions, body panels and chassis components. The threshold for pickup trucks is set higher, at 45%.

The ITC said it will convene a public hearing later this year as part of the review process and aims to publish its report by July 2027.

USMCA, which took effect in 2020 and replaced the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, has meant that goods compliant with its rules of origin can enter the U.S. duty-free. That treatment has shielded Mexico and Canada from the bulk of tariffs imposed under the administration of President Donald Trump on non-compliant goods.

Separately, the U.S. Trade Representative's Office indicated last month that potential USMCA reforms under consideration could include stronger rules of origin for industrial goods.

Major automakers have been vocal about USMCA's role in North American production. General Motors, Tesla, Toyota and Ford have urged the administration to extend USMCA, describing the agreement as crucial for American auto production.

Stellantis commented on the trade measures, saying vehicles made outside North America should follow rules on component origin to "mirror or effectively match those imposed by the USMCA" or the Trump administration should remove tariffs on Mexican and Canadian USMCA-compliant passenger vehicles. The automaker added that under 15% tariffs with Japan, U.S. vehicles that comply with North American content rules "will continue to lose market share to Asian imports, to the detriment of American automotive workers."

The ITC review will evaluate the rules without setting policy itself, laying out findings on economic and competitiveness impacts and the extent to which technological change bears on the existing rules of origin. The scheduled public hearing and the July 2027 report deadline create a defined timetable for stakeholders to present evidence and for the commission to publish its assessment.

Risks

  • Supply-chain adjustments driven by stricter rules of origin could continue to disrupt component sourcing and manufacturing operations in the auto sector - impacting automakers and suppliers.
  • Tariff policy uncertainty - including potential changes to how non-North American vehicles and components are treated - may affect market competitiveness and pricing for U.S. auto producers and importers.
  • If rules are not aligned internationally, U.S. vehicles that comply with North American content rules could face competitive pressure from imports subject to different tariff regimes, a concern flagged by automakers and Stellantis specifically.

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