Economy February 19, 2026

Subprime Demand Pushes U.S. Unsecured Loan Balances to Record

TransUnion finds lower-income borrowers and card consolidation drove a 10% rise to $276 billion amid modestly rising delinquencies

By Hana Yamamoto
Subprime Demand Pushes U.S. Unsecured Loan Balances to Record

TransUnion reports U.S. unsecured loan balances rose 10% last year to a record $276 billion, driven largely by subprime borrowers and consolidation of credit card debt. The bureau expects credit growth to normalize, forecasting modest increases across unsecured loans, mortgages and refinancings in 2026 while projecting a small contraction in auto lending.

Key Points

  • U.S. unsecured loan balances rose 10% to $276 billion, with 26.4 million consumers holding those loans at year-end - impacts consumer finance and banking sectors.
  • Credit-card balances increased 4% to $1.15 trillion; issuers tightened initial credit limits to manage risk - affects card issuers and retail lending dynamics.
  • TransUnion forecasts moderate credit growth in 2026: +5.7% new unsecured loans, +4% mortgages, +4.2% refinancings; auto loans expected to contract 1.5% - relevant for mortgage and auto finance markets.

U.S. unsecured loan balances climbed to an all-time high last year, expanding 10% to $276 billion as demand from subprime borrowers and credit-card consolidation gained momentum, according to TransUnion’s Credit Industry Insights Report.

By the end of December, 26.4 million consumers held unsecured loans, up from 24.5 million a year earlier. The credit bureau highlighted two primary dynamics behind the rise: consumers transferring outstanding credit-card balances into unsecured loan products as interest rates eased, and lower-income households tapping loans to bridge the gap between rising living costs and comparatively stagnant wage growth.

"As interest rates began to fall, many consumers are consolidating their credit card balances into unsecured loans," said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. She added that lower-income consumers are also using these loans as a temporary measure to cope with higher expenses that have not been matched by similar increases in wages.

Credit-card lending to lower-income borrowers rose alongside the unsecured-loan surge. Total credit-card balances increased 4% last year to $1.15 trillion, the report said, though issuers have responded to elevated risk by reducing the initial credit limits extended to new cardholders. TransUnion also noted that delinquency rates have been creeping upward over recent quarters.


Looking ahead, TransUnion projects more moderate expansion in the volume of new credit. The bureau expects growth to drift back toward what it describes as more "normal" levels after the volatility that followed the pandemic.

Specifically, TransUnion forecasts a 5.7% rise in new unsecured loans in 2026, alongside a 4% increase in mortgage originations and a 4.2% uptick in home refinancings. "People that have recent mortgages taken with higher interest rates are starting to have access to refinancing and we expect that demand to grow," Raneri said.

Auto lending is the lone category where TransUnion anticipates a decline this year, projecting a 1.5% contraction after auto-loan balances increased by about 5% last year. The bureau attributed last year’s acceleration in auto lending in part to consumers bringing purchases forward to avoid the impact of import tariffs.

The findings sketch a credit environment where borrowing has expanded, particularly among more credit-vulnerable households, while lenders adjust underwriting and limits in response to rising delinquencies and shifting risk profiles.

Risks

  • Rising delinquency rates could pressure consumer lenders and credit-card issuers if the trend continues - impacts banking and nonbank consumer finance firms.
  • Higher reliance on unsecured loans by lower-income consumers may increase credit risk if wage growth fails to catch up with living costs - affects consumer spending and loan performance.
  • Reduced initial credit limits by card issuers could constrain consumer borrowing capacity and pressure retail spending if tightened further - affects retail and payments sectors.

More from Economy

Trump Announces Plan for 'Even Stronger' Tariff Actions After Supreme Court Setback Feb 20, 2026 Trump Denounces Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs, Signals Sweeping Alternatives Feb 20, 2026 Dallas Fed's Logan Says Policy Is Well Positioned as Inflation Risks Persist Feb 20, 2026 Small Toy Maker at Center of Landmark Ruling as Supreme Court Rejects Trump-Era Tariffs Feb 20, 2026 Tens of Thousands Depart Syrian Camp for Families of Islamic State After Guard Breakdown Feb 20, 2026