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Economy February 17, 2026

National Bank of Romania leaves key rate at 6.50% ahead of quarterly inflation update

Monetary policy held steady as the central bank prepares to publish fresh inflation forecasts and host a governor's press briefing

By Ajmal Hussain
National Bank of Romania leaves key rate at 6.50% ahead of quarterly inflation update

The National Bank of Romania kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 6.50% in its February meeting. Policymakers are set to publish the quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday, which will update inflation projections. The bank signalled no major near-term change to its inflation outlook and reiterated expectations that inflation will drop sharply in the third quarter of 2025 and return to the target range by mid-2027. A governor's press conference after the report could clarify the bank's interpretation of those projections and any future policy options.

Key Points

  • The National Bank of Romania left its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% at the February meeting.
  • The quarterly Inflation Report, due Wednesday, will include updated forecasts and is followed by a Governor's press conference that may clarify policy direction.
  • The NBR projects a sharp fall in annual inflation in the third quarter of 2025 as tax increases and power price adjustments lose effect, and expects inflation to return to the target range by mid-2027 - sectors mentioned in the report include energy (power prices) and areas affected by tax changes.

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 6.50% during its February policy meeting, according to the official statement released by the bank.

Policymakers will publish their quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday, which will include updated inflation forecasts. The NBR has scheduled a press conference led by the Governor after the report is released; that briefing is expected to provide further explanation of the bank's outlook and potentially outline how officials are thinking about monetary policy going forward.

In the press release accompanying the rate decision, the NBR did not signal any meaningful revisions to its inflation outlook for the short-to-medium term. The statement reiterated the bank's projection that annual inflation will decline sharply in the third quarter of 2025 as the influence of recent tax increases and adjustments in power prices fades.

The bank also maintained its forecast that inflation will be back within the target range by mid-2027. The press release did not expand on alternative scenarios or provide additional numerical details beyond that projection.

Observers will be watching the Governor's press conference closely for any interpretive nuances that could indicate shifts in the policy stance at future meetings. The briefing may offer more detail on how the central bank reads the updated forecast path and what conditions would lead policymakers to alter interest rates.

Context and implications

  • The central bank's public materials point to a notable easing of inflationary pressure in the third quarter of 2025, tied explicitly to the waning effects of tax and power price changes.
  • The NBR continues to expect that inflation will return to the target range by mid-2027, a timeline the bank reaffirmed alongside the decision to hold rates steady.
  • The Governor's forthcoming press conference may provide additional clarity on the degree of confidence in those projections and any policy options under consideration.

The information available in the bank's announcement and the preview of the Inflation Report forms the basis for this coverage. The upcoming report and press briefing are the next scheduled releases from the NBR that could modify this assessment.

Risks

  • Uncertainty about how the updated inflation forecasts in the quarterly report might alter the central bank's outlook - this could affect monetary policy communication at the Governor's press conference.
  • The projected sharp decline in inflation in Q3 2025 depends on the diminishing impact of tax increases and power price adjustments, introducing timing risk to the inflation path.
  • The NBR's continued expectation that inflation will be within the target range by mid-2027 is a forecast and may change if underlying factors evolve differently than currently projected.

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