Economy February 16, 2026

Markets Brace for Lunar New Year, Retail Results and Commodity Earnings

Walmart earnings, European miners and central bank decisions set to shape market direction amid mixed macro signals

By Nina Shah
Markets Brace for Lunar New Year, Retail Results and Commodity Earnings

Markets enter a thin-turned-busy week as much of Asia celebrates the Lunar New Year and investors await a slate of corporate earnings and macroeconomic data. Walmart’s quarterly report will be scrutinized for clues on U.S. consumer spending after mixed retail and employment figures. European mining giants face results against a backdrop of volatile commodity prices, while flash business surveys, UK labour and inflation data and central bank policy choices in Indonesia and New Zealand provide further potential market-moving developments.

Key Points

  • Walmart’s quarterly results will be a central signal of U.S. consumer demand following flat December retail sales and a strong January jobs report - affecting retail and consumer discretionary sectors.
  • Earnings from Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American and Antofagasta will test whether recent rallies in copper, gold and silver are supported by corporate performance - impacting commodities and materials sectors.
  • Flash PMI readings, UK labour and inflation data, and central bank decisions in Indonesia and New Zealand are all set to influence market expectations for growth and monetary policy - relevant for fixed income, currencies and regional equity markets.

As the Lunar New Year begins and the year of the fire horse arrives, many Asian markets will be closed for celebrations even as global finance turns to a packed calendar of corporate results and economic releases. The fire horse is traditionally associated with both energy and volatility - a fitting metaphor for the coming week, where investor hopes for renewed momentum will confront a series of plausible shocks.

At the centre of attention is Walmart, which recently crossed the $1 trillion market capitalisation threshold and is scheduled to release quarterly results on Thursday. The retailer’s report is being treated as a near-term gauge of U.S. consumer activity following a string of mixed signals from recent data. December retail sales were unexpectedly flat, a development that could imply slower consumer spending as 2026 begins, yet a stronger-than-expected jobs report for January eased some immediate concerns about a broad economic slowdown.

Walmart’s results will arrive ahead of an extended reporting season for other major retailers, including Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target, each of which will provide further detail on consumer behaviour and demand for big-ticket items and household goods. Alongside corporate releases, markets will see a cluster of macroeconomic publications: the advance reading of fourth-quarter GDP, a monthly consumer sentiment measure, and the personal consumption expenditures price index, a benchmark inflation gauge closely watched by policymakers and investors.


European miners face a volatile metals market

Europe’s four largest mining companies - Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American and Antofagasta - are due to report earnings this week at a time when several of the metals they extract have recently reached record prices. Copper, gold, silver and other precious metals posted notable peaks in recent weeks, though the steep rally seen during January has lost some consistency in the days that followed.

The demand drivers for many of these commodities are broadly outlined. Copper remains essential for data centres and for the electricity grid upgrades linked to the deployment of artificial intelligence infrastructure, while gold and, to a lesser extent, silver have benefited from U.S. political uncertainty and market concerns about the autonomy of the Federal Reserve.

Despite the failure of a planned merger between Glencore and Rio Tinto, the collective market value of these four miners has risen by more than $65 billion since the start of the year. Investors will look to the coming earnings reports to assess whether corporate results and management commentary support the recent run-up in valuations, or whether the gains are vulnerable to reversal.


Flash surveys and the shape of demand

Global surveys of business activity released for January point to a modest pickup across most major economies, according to preliminary readings. The dynamics are uneven: services sectors are showing stronger momentum as price pressures continue to ease, while manufacturing activity is acting as a constraint on overall expansion.

These surveys include sub-indexes that cover new orders, employment and pricing expectations, offering an early read on firms’ operational plans for the months ahead rather than a pure backward-looking snapshot. In the context of the current wave of artificial intelligence investment, and the attendant debate over its implications for jobs and corporate cost structures, investors may pay unusually close attention to this round of flash purchasing managers’ indices for signs of how companies intend to navigate coming cyclical and structural changes.


UK labour, inflation and political backdrop

Markets will also focus on the United Kingdom where labour market statistics and fresh inflation data are due. Investors remain sensitive to developments in the political sphere after recent instability in the centre of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government. Labour market figures scheduled for Tuesday are expected to show whether a gradual cooling in wage growth, an input closely monitored by the Bank of England, has persisted into the new year.

Attention then moves to the January inflation reading on Wednesday. Consumer price inflation rose to 3.4% in December, down from a peak of over 11% in 2022 but still the highest rate among Group of Seven economies. The coming reduction in energy prices, set to take effect from April, should help pull inflation toward the Bank of England’s 2% target, but much of the recent deceleration reflects one-off factors rather than a sustained underlying slowdown.

With political turbulence contributing to volatility in sterling and UK government bonds, markets are likely to respond sensitively to any deviations from expected readings. In addition, ratings agency activity is on the calendar, with a scheduled review by Fitch later in the week that investors will watch for commentary on sovereign finances and broader economic resilience.


Central bank decisions in Southeast Asia and New Zealand

In Asia, Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting on Thursday has taken on added significance after MSCI’s recent warning about a possible downgrade of the country’s classification to frontier market status. That threat had preceded a market rout that the article describes as an $80 billion wipeout - identified as the nation’s most severe sell-off since the Asian financial crisis in 1998. The episode was followed by a cut to Indonesia’s credit rating outlook from Moody’s and a postponement of an index review by FTSE.

Against this backdrop, the central bank could move to resume its easing cycle. Indonesia’s policy rate had been lowered by a total of 150 basis points between September 2024 and September 2025, and investors will observe whether further stimulus measures are signalled or implemented.

Also on the schedule is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision on Wednesday, the first since Governor Anna Breman arrived from Sweden’s Riksbank in December. Breman is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. However, the commentary notes that economic growth in New Zealand has recovered sufficiently quickly that the next policy action could be a rate increase, with the timing of such a move potentially as early as September.


This confluence of corporate earnings, survey data, inflation and labour releases, together with pivotal central bank decisions, creates a week in which investors will weigh competing signals on growth, prices and policy. The mix of holiday-thinned liquidity in parts of Asia and concentrated news flow elsewhere may amplify market reactions to any unexpected developments.

Risks

  • Volatility around commodity prices could challenge mining sector valuations if earnings do not justify recent market gains - risk for materials and resource companies.
  • Political instability in the UK and sensitive inflation and labour readings could spur moves in sterling and gilts, complicating monetary policy outlook - risk for UK sovereign debt and currency markets.
  • Potential policy moves in Indonesia following market pressure and index action, along with central bank signalling elsewhere, create uncertainty for emerging market assets and investor flows.

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