It was a subdued start to the week in global markets as holidays kept much of Asia and the United States on the sidelines. The so-called year of the Fire Horse was mentioned in market chatter, but more tangible forces arrived in the form of new Japanese economic data that cooled enthusiasm on domestic exchanges.
Japan’s economy expanded just 0.2% on an annualised basis in the December quarter, a result that fell well short of the 1.6% bounce many analysts had anticipated after the prior contraction in Q3. On a year-on-year basis, GDP rose a meagre 0.1%, a marked slowdown from the roughly 2% pace recorded in mid-2025.
Nominal GDP provided a somewhat rosier figure, advancing 3.4% year-on-year, but that gain was driven entirely by higher prices rather than stronger real output. The data identified government spending and imports as the largest drags on growth in the quarter.
The weak outturn has political and policy implications. It bolsters arguments for a more aggressive fiscal stance from Prime Minister Takaichi, with growing discussion that a supplementary budget could be moved up and implemented quickly rather than later in the year.
Market participants noted that the Nikkei may have simply run ahead of fundamentals after a solid run: the index climbed about 5% last week. Other regional markets experienced similar rallies, with Taiwan up roughly 5.7% and South Korea gaining more than 8%. Much of that strength was concentrated in chipmakers, which have benefited from the very large sums being spent by cloud and AI hyperscalers.
That surge has also prompted concern among some analysts, who worry the major tech firms may be engaged in an intense race to deploy AI capabilities first, potentially without sufficient regard to returns. For now, earnings calendars are light on high-profile tech reports, leaving retailers to command attention.
One such focal point is Walmart, which is expected to report while other tech giants remain quiet. The retailer is projecting annual sales growth between 4.8% and 5.1% and would need to hit the top of that range to justify a price-to-earnings multiple around 47.
Walmart’s business already shows elements of AI application, particularly in pricing strategies and logistics. The company is also leveraging robotics, digital advertising and online sales channels, and management is banking on AI’s ability to better anticipate what shoppers will want - and what they will not - a capability that could markedly improve inventory efficiency if it performs as hoped.
Key developments market-watchers will be tracking this Monday include euro zone industrial output data, participation by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Board Member Piero Cipollone in a Eurogroup meeting, and a speech from Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.
Markets remain sensitive to both macroeconomic surprises and the flow of corporate guidance, with the interplay between policy options in Tokyo and investment patterns among AI hyperscalers set to influence sector performance in the near term.