The International Monetary Fund said it will publish its initial annual review of United States economic policy on February 25, a report set to cover fiscal, trade and current account deficits as well as a broad assessment of whether the dollar is over- or under-valued.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack made the announcement at a routine briefing, and emphasized the lender’s view of the dollar’s continued centrality to the international monetary system despite recent declines in its value.
"When we look at a more historical context, the current level of the dollar against major currencies is close to its historical average over the past decade," Kozack said. "Currency markets can be volatile, and it’s, of course, important not to read too much into day-to-day movements in currencies."
Kozack also told reporters that the fund sees the dollar as continuing to dominate trade invoicing, international reserves, borrowing and global payments even after its recent depreciation.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will hold a press conference on February 25 after concluding the consultations under Article IV with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other officials from the Trump administration, Kozack said.
The IMF’s last U.S.-focused policy guidance was issued in 2024, when the fund urged the then-Biden administration to raise taxes to address rising debt levels that the IMF said threatened to undermine robust growth and progress in bringing inflation under control.
Since President Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, U.S. deficits have remained elevated, a trend the IMF will examine in its report. The rise in deficits has been driven in part by tax cuts enacted by Republicans last year.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated last week that those tax reductions would keep annual deficits at an average of 6.1% of GDP over the next decade - an unusually high level for a peacetime economy - and projected public debt would reach 120% of U.S. GDP by 2036, surpassing its post-World War Two peak in 2030.
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What to expect from the IMF release:
- Assessment of U.S. fiscal policy and deficit trajectory.
- Evaluation of trade balances and current account developments.
- Broader appraisal of the dollar’s value and role in the global monetary system.