The International Monetary Fund has maintained its projection that China's economy will expand by 4.5% in 2026, according to the Fund's annual review of the Chinese economy for 2025, published on Wednesday.
Although the numerical forecast remained unchanged, the IMF highlighted several vulnerabilities that could undermine the outlook. The review specifically called attention to subdued domestic demand and the impact of a decelerating global economy as principal concerns for the world's second-largest economy.
At a press conference in Beijing in December, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said she had urged Chinese policymakers to choose what she described as the "brave choice" of stepping up structural reform. Her remarks stressed the importance of policy choices that would strengthen domestic economic drivers rather than relying predominantly on external demand.
Georgieva also underscored the need for China to reduce its $19 trillion economy's reliance on exports. That point was made as part of the Fund's closing comments following discussions with Chinese government officials about the 2025 report, which served as the basis for the IMF's current assessment.
The Fund's assessment and Georgieva's comments were presented after the conclusion of the IMF's consultations with China on the 2025 review. The review and the meetings together informed the Fund's evaluation of near-term prospects and policy recommendations.
This reporting outlines the IMF's retained projection and the central policy messages conveyed during the Fund's engagement with Chinese authorities: a steady headline forecast for 2026 paired with a cautionary note about internal and external risks, and an explicit appeal to pursue structural reforms and reduce export dependence.
Clear summary - The IMF kept China’s 2026 growth forecast at 4.5% in its 2025 annual review, while warning of weak domestic demand and a slowing global economy and urging structural reforms to lower reliance on exports.