Erste Group has flagged expectations that the National Bank of Romania (NBR) will maintain its policy rate at 6.50% at the central bank's February meeting. The bank’s key rate has been left unchanged since mid-2024, and Erste’s assessment mirrors the prevailing view among financial analysts tracking Romania’s monetary policy.
According to Erste, the NBR will publish an updated inflation forecast alongside the meeting, and the forecast is likely to be nudged slightly higher for the short-to-medium term. The adjustment is expected to be more noticeable for core inflation, which Erste notes has repeatedly outpaced the central bank’s earlier projections in recent months.
The governor of the NBR is due to hold a press conference at the time the quarterly Inflation Report is released. Erste says that the briefing could shed light on the central bank’s future policy trajectory - these sessions typically provide context for revised projections and any potential shifts in stance.
Looking further ahead, Erste projects that the NBR will not enact its first rate reduction until the May 2026 meeting. The group attributes the timing to the character of recent inflationary developments, describing them as largely supply-driven and tied to fiscal consolidation measures undertaken by the Romanian government.
Erste’s view underscores a central bank approach that has so far favored policy stability in the face of persistent inflation pressures. The combination of higher-than-expected core inflation and an upward tweak to the near-term forecast forms the basis for Erste’s expectation of a continued pause in policy easing until mid-2026.
Clear summary
Erste Group expects the NBR to hold the policy rate at 6.50% at the February meeting, with a slightly higher inflation forecast and a delayed first rate cut projected for May 2026. Core inflation has been running above the bank’s prior forecasts, and recent inflationary moves are characterized as supply-driven and related to fiscal consolidation.