Economy February 20, 2026

Bessent Says Signs Point to Stronger Labor Demand After Capex Surge

Treasury chief highlights AI data-center spending and temporary-staffing gains as potential precursors to a labor rebound

By Derek Hwang
Bessent Says Signs Point to Stronger Labor Demand After Capex Surge

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Economic Club of Dallas he expects the current low-hire, low-fire phase in the labor market to give way to stronger demand. He pointed to last year's surge in business investment in AI data centers and rising profits and demand at temp agencies as early signals. Bessent also commented on a recent Supreme Court ruling and on the role of private credit in the broader economy.

Key Points

  • Surge in business spending on AI data centers is seen as a precursor to stronger labor demand - impacts tech and construction-related hiring.
  • Temporary staffing firms are posting higher profits and strong demand, which historically can lead to sustained hiring - impacts staffing and services sectors.
  • Treasury is watching private credit to ensure the regulated financial system remains insulated; private credit has so far been additive to the economy - impacts financial markets and lending.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday he is optimistic the labor market will emerge from its present low-hire, low-fire state, citing indicators that suggest firmer labor demand may be on the horizon.

Speaking at the Economic Club of Dallas, Bessent emphasized the impact of recent corporate capital expenditures. He noted that business investment in AI data centers climbed sharply last year and linked that surge to potential employment gains. "Traditionally capex booms were followed by labor booms," he said, drawing a direct connection between elevated capital spending and subsequent increases in hiring.

Bessent flagged activity in temporary staffing as another early signal. He said temp agencies are reporting stronger profits and "very good demand," adding that, in his view, such patterns tend to evolve into more sustained hiring. "Historically that morphs into long-term demand," he said.

The Treasury Secretary also addressed recent legal developments and credit-sector dynamics. He said he was a little surprised by a Supreme Court ruling and warned that a dispute over refunds could be protracted, potentially stretching out for "weeks, months or years."

On private credit, Bessent set out the government's priority for the regulated finance system. He said the government's role is to ensure that problems originating in private credit do not spill over into the regulated system. He noted that, to date, private credit has been "additive to the economy."


Context and implications

Bessent framed the comments around observable market signals—corporate capex, temporary-staffing strength and the behavior of private credit—while flagging potential legal uncertainty tied to a Supreme Court decision. His remarks framed these developments as possible precursors to a more active labor market, without asserting a definitive timeline.

Key takeaways

  • Rising business investment in AI data centers is viewed by the Treasury as a potential driver of future hiring.
  • Improving profits and demand at temp agencies are taken as early signs that short-term hiring could translate into longer-term labor demand.
  • Officials are monitoring private credit to prevent contagion into the regulated financial system; so far, private credit has been supportive of economic activity.

Risks

  • A recent Supreme Court ruling could trigger a protracted dispute over refunds that may last weeks, months or years - introduces legal and fiscal uncertainty for Treasury and affected parties.
  • Potential for problems in private credit to spill into the regulated financial system if not contained - risk to banking and broader financial stability.
  • Uncertainty remains over whether current signals (capex and temp demand) will translate promptly or uniformly into long-term hiring across sectors.

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