Economy February 15, 2026

Bank of England policymaker links rising youth joblessness to sharp minimum wage increases

Catherine Mann says concentrated wage hikes for younger cohorts have helped push up unemployment among 18-24 year olds

By Caleb Monroe
Bank of England policymaker links rising youth joblessness to sharp minimum wage increases

Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann told a UK newspaper that the substantial increases in minimum pay for younger workers over the past three years have been a key factor in rising unemployment for that age group, rather than an early sign of broader labour-market deterioration. Youth unemployment for 18-24 year olds rose to 13.7% in the three months to November, while overall unemployment climbed to 5.1%.

Key Points

  • Youth unemployment for 18-24 year olds rose to 13.7% in the three months to November, up from 10.2% three years earlier and the highest since Q4 2020.
  • Mann attributes the rise in youth joblessness to substantial increases in minimum wage rates for younger cohorts rather than to a leading indication of a wider labour-market downturn. Sectors that disproportionately employ younger workers may be more directly affected by these wage changes.
  • Overall unemployment rose to 5.1% from 3.9% over the same three-year period; Mann has voted against the Bank of England's last three rate cuts because of inflation concerns.

Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann told the Sunday Telegraph that a concentrated rise in minimum pay for younger workers over the past three years has contributed to higher unemployment in that cohort.

Mann pointed to data showing the unemployment rate for 18-24 year olds stood at 13.7% in the three months to November, up from 10.2% three years earlier and at its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2020. Over the same period, unemployment across the entire workforce increased to 5.1% from 3.9%.

In the interview, Mann argued the pattern in youth joblessness reflected what she described as "disproportionately big increases in the minimum wage for that age group," rather than serving as a clear early warning of a more widespread deterioration in labour-market conditions. "I think we have to be very careful in the storyline about youth unemployment being the canary in the coal mine for a deeper deterioration in the labour market," she said.

Expanding on that point, Mann said: "The accumulation over three years of the rise in the National Living Wage for that group has been manifested in unemployment for that category of workers. Very unfortunate, but it is true. It is a fact."

The government has raised the minimum wage rates for younger workers markedly in recent years. The rate for 21-22 year-old workers has increased by 33% over the past three years, bringing it in line with the hourly National Living Wage of 12.71 pounds paid to older workers. For 18-20 year olds, the rate has climbed 46% to 10 pounds an hour. The government has stated it intends to bring the minimum wage paid to 18-20 year-old workers in line with that of older workers as well.

Mann, a former chief economist at the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, has also taken a cautious stance on recent monetary policy changes. She voted against the Bank of England's last three rate cuts, citing concerns about inflation.

( $1 = 0.7327 pounds )

Risks

  • Bringing 18-20 year-old pay fully in line with older workers could further affect employment prospects for that age group, a development the government has said it seeks.
  • There is uncertainty over whether elevated youth unemployment will remain a contained issue tied to wage structure or become indicative of a broader labour-market weakness.
  • Persistent inflation concerns, referenced by Mann in her voting record against recent rate cuts, add uncertainty to monetary policy direction and how it will interact with labour-market outcomes.

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