Kraft Heinz Q4 2025 Earnings Call - CEO Pauses Separation, Committing $600M to Jumpstart Volume-Led Recovery

Anne-Marie Megela, Head of Global Investor Relations, Kraft Heinz Company: Hello, this is Anne-Marie Megela, Head of Global Investor Relations at The Kraft Heinz Company. I’d like to welcome you to our fourth quarter and full-year 2025 business update. During the following remarks, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future, including related to our business plans and expectations, strategy, efforts and investments, and related timing and expected impacts. These statements are based on how we see things today, and actual results may differ materially due to risk and uncertainties. Please see the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in today’s earnings release, which accompany these remarks, as well as our most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties. Additionally, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude certain items from our financial results reported in accordance with GAAP.

Please refer to today’s earnings release and the non-GAAP information that accompany these remarks, which are available on our website at ir.kraftheinzcompany.com under News and Events for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP financial measures. Today, our Chief Executive Officer, Steve Cahillane, will provide an update on our overall strategy and business performance. Andre Maciel, our Chief Global Financial Officer, will then provide a financial review of the fourth quarter results, and we will conclude by discussing our 2026 outlook. We have also scheduled a separate live question-and-answer session with analysts. You can access our question-and-answer session at ir.kraftheinzcompany.com. A replay will also be available following the event through the same website. With that, I will now turn it over to Steve.

Steve Cahillane, Chief Executive Officer, Kraft Heinz Company: Thank you, Anne-Marie, and thank you all for joining us. I’m excited to be hosting my first earnings call today with Kraft Heinz. This company has great potential with well-known brands, a team of passionate, talented people, and as I’ve built my understanding of the company from the inside over the last six weeks, I am even more confident that together we can unlock the company’s full potential. We have a clear opportunity, and we are building a pathway to meet the consumer where they are by contemporizing our brands, differentiating our products, strengthening our value proposition, and improving our commercial execution, all necessary steps to return to growth. Today, I will walk you through a couple of key points. First, I will discuss our 2025 full-year financial performance, and Andre will later provide specific details for the fourth quarter.

We will also dive deeper into our 2026 operating plan and the steps we’re taking to return the company to organic, profitable growth, followed by an update on the separation. Lastly, Andre will detail our 2026 guidance. So, beginning with 2025, to say the least, it was quite a challenging year for the sector and Kraft Heinz. We saw a meaningful year-over-year decline in both top-line and bottom-line results. Organic net sales were pressured by market share losses, primarily in the United States retail. Efficiencies and limited pricing partially offset inflation and tariffs, resulting in an adjusted gross profit margin decline of 120 basis points. The pressure on gross margin, coupled with incremental investments in marketing, led to a constant currency adjusted operating income decline of 11.4%.

These dynamics, along with an anticipated higher year-over-year effective tax rate, resulted in an Adjusted EPS of $2.60, a 15% decline compared to 2024. Despite these challenges in our P&L, we generated strong Free Cash Flow with improvement of nearly 16% versus prior year. Our ability to generate significant cash flow continues to provide us with healthy capital allocation optionality. Now, looking at our full-year 2025 results through the lens of our three strategic growth pillars, Organic Net Sales and our North America retail accelerate platforms declined by 5.2%. This was driven by a combination of share loss and industry-related headwinds. The majority of the decline came from three areas: Lunchables, Spoonables, and frozen meals and snacks.

Moving on to our next strategic pillar, global away-from-home, organic net sales were down 1.5% in 2025, driven primarily by lower traffic trends in the U.S. and market share pressure as propensity to trade down remains high, particularly in the back-of-house business. This was partially offset by growth in our international away-from-home markets. Despite the slowdown in the U.S., we made progress in diversifying our channel mix, increasing the percent of our North America away-from-home sales in non-commercial channels over 150 basis points in 2025. We also continued to expand distribution in our emerging markets away-from-home business, with organic net sales growing approximately 9% this year. Our final pillar, emerging markets, organic net sales were up 4.6%, driven by double-digit growth in our LATAM and East regions, partially offset by a decline in Indonesia.

Growth in emerging markets is coming primarily from our Heinz brand, with Organic Net Sales up nearly 13% in 2025 versus the prior year, and continued expansion of distribution through our go-to-market model. The decline in Indonesia is primarily a result of the need to reset inventory levels with distributors, in part due to the financial distress of one of the largest distributors in the country. Recovery will take some time as we work to right-size inventory levels, transition to new distributors, and reduce pricing instability. As a result, we don’t expect meaningful improvement until the second half of 2026. Now, let’s talk about our plan and expectations for 2026. Our ultimate goal is to drive volume-led, sustainable, and profitable top-line growth while continuing to generate attractive Free Cash Flow. This is the single most important thing we can do to position ourselves for the future.

I said on day one that my number one priority was assessing the 2026 plan and making any necessary adjustments to return to profitable growth. When I decided to join Kraft Heinz, I knew that this was an exciting opportunity to contemporize iconic brands, better serve consumers and customers, and build meaningful shareholder value, and that is all true. As I have examined the business, I clearly see how much is fixable and how much is within our own control. I have spent considerable time with the team understanding what will be required to realize this opportunity. Successful execution of our operating plan will require a meaningful investment of approximately $600 million. We do not take this level of investment in 2026 lightly and will deploy these incremental dollars in a highly disciplined manner.

Thanks to the financial stewardship by the team and the board, our balance sheet is strong and our free cash flow capabilities robust, positioning us to fully fund the incremental investments the team and I have identified. I am convinced that with these investments and improving U.S. operating model and stronger resources and capabilities, we can do a lot better and generate solid market share momentum in the second half of the year. But it demands the full attention and engagement of every person in this company. Our resource allocation decisions (time, people, money) need to be singularly focused on the execution of our operating plan. At the same time, market conditions have gotten noticeably more challenging since the decision was first made to separate the company last summer. Consumer sentiment has worsened, industry trends have softened, and there is increasing volatility in the geopolitical landscape.

These shifts make the path to recovery steeper and heighten the importance of restoring momentum in the business, most notably those brands in the North American Grocery Company portfolio while accelerating trends in our Taste Elevation platform. Accordingly, we are prioritizing our resources to execute the operating plan and are pausing the work related to the separation. As the investments and our operating plan drive recovery and momentum in the business, we will then be in a better position to make a decision regarding next steps for the separation. We recognize that the portfolio does need to evolve, and by investing in and turning around the business, we improve optionality for future portfolio optimization.

I know what it takes to deliver on a successful separation of a business, and I also know that this success is greatly helped by the glide path created by the underlying performance of the separated business. As such, I am confident that this is the right decision at this time. Let’s talk more about what we will be doing this year. It is clear that we have historically underinvested in our brands and in the business, resulting in persistent share loss over the last decade. To drive market share momentum and ultimately sustainable profitable growth, we need to meet consumers where they are. To do this, it is imperative that we align our brands and products with consumer preferences, that we show up with better commercial execution, and that we provide a more balanced value equation for our consumers with a focus on opening price points.

This requires focused investment across marketing, sales, and R&D, as well as product superiority and price. Let’s dive into some specifics. It all begins with the consumer. Our goal is to build superior consumer experiences with our brands. Historically, we have had a gap in innovation due to underinvestment. We haven’t been successful in launching scalable, profitable products on a consistent basis. To turn this around, we are increasing investments in R&D by approximately 20% in 2026 compared to 2025. Our innovation and renovation strategy will have an emphasis on value across three key consumer-driven platforms: nutrition, convenience, and new occasions. Let me give you some examples of what the team are working on. Within nutrition, we will be focused on providing value through healthier offerings without sacrificing taste. One example I’m excited about in this space is the launch of Kraft Mac and Cheese Power Mac.

Power Mac provides benefits consumers are looking for with 17 grams of protein and 6 grams of fiber. We are offering more nutritional value than competition at a lower price point. This is a great example of us doubling down in areas we are most excited about. Power Mac is a big idea, and it will be well-funded. You will start to see Power Mac on shelves in the second quarter. Within convenience, we are going to build on the initial traction we established in 2025 with Capri Sun single-serve bottles. Here, we are unlocking value by expanding in formats, channels, and occasions. Being nearly 60% incremental in the category, this presents a tremendous opportunity for us to capture within convenience stores, front-end displays, and other on-the-go new occasions beyond the pouch. Across our innovation platforms, we will be focused on expanding our globally iconic Heinz brand.

Heinz is a $5 billion-plus brand with amazing brand equity and the opportunity to drive further household penetration. Around the world, we are expanding Heinz across new occasions and geographies while catering to local preferences and trends, whether that be across nutrition through our Heinz Simply platform that spans categories and expands access to natural ingredients without compromising on taste, or across new occasions through our expansion of Heinz into the kitchen with pasta sauce like we did in the UK, Brazil, and Chile with plans to scale further. We are also broadening Heinz beyond ketchup through a host food-led strategy, launching modern condiments aimed at protein categories like chicken and fish across Europe, the UK, and Canada.

As you can see, there’s a lot of excitement around the Heinz brand across the globe, and we have a huge opportunity to bring even more energy around the brand into the U.S. We will also strengthen commercial execution through improved infrastructure with stepped-up investments in resources and capabilities across our marketing and sales organization and incremental marketing behind our brands. We acknowledge that our current teams are too lean, and this is limiting our ability to execute consistently. The investment in our sales organization will enable us to build stronger joint business plans with better execution. Across marketing, we will be better equipped to drive demand through sharper consumer insights, stronger brand positioning, and better-supported product launches. We will increase our marketing investment to approximately 5.5% of net sales, targeting investments towards our biggest growth opportunities.

In 2025, the marketing teams have done a lot of work to transform our approach, which now prioritizes investing behind product-focused creative, leaning into relevant moments and culture where our brands make sense, and unlocking value at must-win consumer moments. We will continue to build upon this strategy. Finally, to ensure we are providing a balanced value equation, we will be investing in price. As I have said before, great consumer goods companies need to earn price. In this cycle we’ve been through over the last couple of years, prices were not earned. We took pricing to address double-digit inflation, recognizing that these actions were not accompanied by incremental benefits for our consumers. We need to earn our price by providing consumers with more value and product differentiation. To do this, we will be executing against the plans I just mentioned, as well as refining our pricing strategy.

In 2026, we will pursue a three-pronged disciplined approach, beginning with improving the ROI of our promotional spend. We will do this by redirecting funds from programs that have underperformed in 2025 to those that have demonstrated a higher return. Second, we will have a relentless focus on opening price points, ensuring that we are providing consumers with affordable choices and protecting distribution. Lastly, where necessary, we will revisit base price to ensure we are passing on any savings to the consumer. This will be in select categories on a case-by-case basis. While we certainly have a lot of work in front of us, we are investing to build capabilities to win with our consumers and our customers, and I am encouraged by the groundwork the team has laid across several key categories this past year.

In Taste Elevation categories, including cream cheese, salad dressing, ketchup, and mustard, we went from losing share in the first half of 2025 to improvements in quarter three to gaining share in the fourth quarter. In fact, we ended 2025 with over 70% of our Taste Elevation platform gaining share, fueled by this initial traction. Across these categories, our execution was grounded in consumer insights, resulting in measurable improvement. Let me give you a couple of examples. In salad dressings, we attribute improvements to several initiatives, including a product-focused campaign and money-back guarantee following a new improved ranch formula, and recognizing the growing number of consumers who value affordability, we launched an eight-ounce bottle at a lower entry price point. Take mustard, where we are meeting the rising demand for health benefits.

With its clean nutritional profile and the shift toward more meals at home, this created an opportunity for us to highlight its versatility through social engagement, showcasing uses such as marinades and dressings. We’ve seen positive momentum in other areas as well. The team identified four critical categories that were driving the majority of our U.S. retail decline as we entered 2025. We have applied additional focus in these areas and saw significant progress throughout the year. We mined our insights and executed against those insights, whether it be improvements in our core Lunchables product and packaging or our new targeted regional approach in meal.

Relative to the first half of 2025 to where we exited in the fourth quarter, we saw consumption improvement across each category: Lunchables improving by 11 percentage points, Capri Sun by 7 percentage points, mayo by 13 percentage points, and mac and cheese by 2 percentage points. These impressive results and the great work the team has done in these specific instances give me even more conviction that the investment plan we are announcing today is the right path forward for Kraft Heinz. We have a clear view of how we will invest these funds, and we will do so smartly with a close eye on long-term returns. Our goal is to drive positive volume growth over time through better in-market execution, better products, and innovations that consumers love.

This is the first step that will restore a virtuous cycle in our operating model, leading to margin expansion and healthy long-term top and bottom line growth. Now, let me hand it over to Andre, who will walk you through our fourth quarter financial performance and 2026 outlook in more detail. Thank you, Steve. In the fourth quarter, organic net sales declined 4.2% for total Kraft Heinz, with price up 0.5 percentage points and volume mix down 4.7 percentage points. Breaking this performance down by zone, North America organic net sales declined 5.4% led by declines in the U.S., primarily in cold cuts and away from home, which more than offset growth in Canada. As expected and previewed in our last earnings call, we also experienced an inventory de-load impact of approximately 150 basis points. In our international developed markets, organic net sales declined 2.4%.

This decline was primarily driven by industry softness in the U.K., particularly in the meals categories including soups and beans. Despite this industry softness, we gained 20 basis points of share in the fourth quarter. In emerging markets, organic net sales were up 2.2%. This was driven by continued double-digit growth in LATAM and EAST regions, partially offset by a 740 basis point impact from the decline in Indonesia. As Steve mentioned earlier, we expect to start seeing recovery in Indonesia in the second half of 2026. Outside of Indonesia, we are generating volume growth in emerging markets, entering the year with momentum. Moving to the next slide, Kraft Heinz adjusted operating income declined 15.9%, and our adjusted operating income margin decreased 280 basis points. In North America, adjusted operating income declined 16.8% versus the prior year.

This was primarily driven by volume declines, inflation more than offsetting our pricing, and increased market investment. These impacts were partially offset by our productivity initiatives. In international developed markets, adjusted operating income increased 6.6%. Gains from strong productivity in operations and SG&A savings across Europe were partially offset by volume declines and inflation. In emerging markets, adjusted operating income declined 28.8%. Indonesia, which contributed a 35 percentage point impact to the decline, more than offset growth in the rest of the business. Outside of Indonesia, we saw growth driven by sales performance, particularly in our Heinz brand and productivity savings. Moving to adjusted gross profit margin, in the quarter we saw a decline of 130 basis points versus the prior year. This was driven by inflation, including tariffs, which more than offset pricing. These impacts were partially offset by best-in-class levels of productivity.

In terms of Adjusted EPS, we declined approximately 20% or $0.17 versus the fourth quarter of 2024. This was driven by a lower result of operations, a higher effective tax rate, and higher interest expense, partially offset by favorable impacts from other financial income and share repurchases. Despite this pressure in the P&L, our ability to drive efficiencies and generate cash remains strong. We deliver gross efficiencies of approximately $690 million in 2025, representing our third year in a row delivering over 4% of COGS. Productivity savings continue to be a bright spot, reflecting discipline and end-to-end improvements across manufacturing, logistics, and procurement. Looking at cash, we generated $3.7 billion of Free Cash Flow in 2025, nearly a 16% increase versus the prior year, with Free Cash Flow conversion of 119%, a 34 percentage point increase compared to 2024.

This was driven primarily by improvement in working capital, including better inventory management and demand planning initiatives, lower cash taxes, lower CapEx, and reduced cash flows from variable compensation. Looking at our capital allocation priorities for 2026, they remain unchanged. First is to continue to step up investment in the business, as Steve shared. Second is to maintain net leverage around three times, and this will include deploying excess cash to reduce debt in 2026. Third is to actively manage our portfolio, and fourth is to return excess capital to shareholders. We ended the year with a strong balance sheet, with net leverage at our target ratio of approximately three times. In 2025, we returned about $2.3 billion in capital to stockholders. Of the $2.3 billion, $1.9 billion was through our competitive dividend, and approximately $400 million was through our share repurchase program.

Looking at 2026, incremental investments contemplated in our operating plan that Steve laid out will help us to better be equipped to align our brands and products with consumer preferences, show up with better commercial execution, and provide a more balanced value equation for consumers. Approximately half of the investment is expected to be in price, product quality, and packaging, and the other half in SG&A across sales, R&D, and marketing, as well as in-store activation. We will be investing more heavily to stabilize those brands in the previously defined North American grocery company portfolio, while investing sufficiently to accelerate recovery and growth trends we are already seeing in our Taste Elevation platform brands. As we move throughout the year, we will monitor the efficiency of our investments and adapt the allocation of funds as needed to ensure we are getting the highest return.

To monitor our progress, we will also be tracking the percentage of revenue getting share, and while we don’t expect to see improvements overnight, we do expect to see recovery as we get into the second half of the year. Since we are pausing the work on the separation, we will not incur any of the $300 million in the synergies or meaningful additional one-time cost in 2026. Now, turning to our full year 2026 outlook. We expect organic net sales to be down 3.5%-1.5%. This includes an approximate 100 basis points impact from incremental SNAP headwinds. Our outlook contemplates adjusted gross profit margin in the range of down 75-25 basis points year-over-year, reflecting inflation as well as investments in price, product, and packaging that I just mentioned. This is expected to more than offset targeted efficiencies.

Constant currency adjusted operating income is expected to be in the range of down 18%-down 14%. This includes an approximately 3 percentage point impact from lapping lower variable compensation 2025 and approximately 13 percentage points from the incremental investments I detailed earlier. We expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.98-$2.10. Our adjusted EPS expectation contemplates an effective tax rate of approximately 25.5%. From a cash perspective, we expect to generate free cash flow conversion of approximately 100%. Looking specifically at the first quarter, we expect an approximate 100 basis point benefit to organic net sales from the Easter shift. Excluding this benefit, we expect our top line results to be relatively flat to the fourth quarter. This is primarily driven by a headwind from lower SNAP benefits.

As we progress throughout the year, we do expect sequential improvement in our top line, particularly in the second half of the year as we lap the headwind in Indonesia and begin to see the returns of our investments. For adjusted operating income, we anticipate a high-teens decline in the first quarter. This is driven by increased investments, specifically those in marketing and price. While we will begin to recruit these investments in the first quarter, we expect more meaningful top line improvement to come in the second half of the year. To wrap up, 2025 was a challenging year for us and the overall industry. It was marked by increasingly difficult market conditions and, for us, ongoing market share pressure.

Looking to 2026, our plan is focused on building momentum in the business and to ultimately drive profitable growth through share recovery and volume improvement while continuing to generate attractive free cash flow. To successfully execute this plan, all resources will be singularly focused on it. That concludes our comments for today. We look forward to seeing many of you at CAGNI next week. Thank you for your time and interest in Kraft Heinz.