Currencies February 4, 2026

Poland's Central Bank Flags Potential FX Market Intervention, Emphasizes Data-Led Policy

Officials say monetary moves will follow incoming data and warn fiscal choices remain a risk to inflation; zloty forecast slightly firmer versus euro

By Derek Hwang
Poland's Central Bank Flags Potential FX Market Intervention, Emphasizes Data-Led Policy

Poland's central bank said it may use foreign exchange interventions as part of its policy toolkit and reiterated that future monetary decisions will be guided by incoming economic data. Bank officials also highlighted fiscal policy as a continuing upside risk to consumer price inflation. A recent poll sees the zloty trading modestly firmer against the euro over the next six months, projecting a rate near 4.2201 per euro.

Key Points

  • Polish central bank says foreign exchange intervention remains a possible tool in its monetary toolkit - impacts currency markets and monetary policy transmission.
  • Monetary policy decisions will be data-driven, with future moves contingent on incoming economic indicators - affects bond markets and interest-rate expectations.
  • Officials flagged fiscal policy as an ongoing risk to consumer price inflation, indicating government spending and taxes could influence price stability - relevant for inflation-sensitive sectors and macroeconomic forecasts.

The Polish central bank announced on Wednesday that intervention in the foreign exchange market remains a possible instrument in its monetary policy toolkit. The statement makes clear that currency operations are among measures the bank may deploy to fulfil its mandate.

Officials emphasized a data-driven approach to setting policy going forward, saying that forthcoming economic releases will influence their decisions on the stance of monetary policy. The message underlines that policy adjustments will be responsive to observed economic developments rather than pre-committed paths.

In the same statement, central bank officials pointed to fiscal policy as a continuing risk factor for consumer price inflation (CPI). They indicated that government spending and taxation choices could affect price dynamics and therefore complicate the inflation outlook. This identification of fiscal policy as a source of uncertainty highlights the interaction between public finances and price stability.

Market expectations surveyed recently show the Polish zloty is forecast to remain relatively stable against the euro over the coming six months. The poll projects the exchange rate to be around 4.2201 versus the euro in that period, which represents a slight appreciation of the zloty compared with a previous projection of 4.25.

Taken together, the central bank's readiness to consider FX intervention, its commitment to basing monetary choices on incoming data, and its warning about fiscal risks create a policy stance that balances active tools with conditionality tied to future information. The bank's emphasis on fiscal-policy-driven inflation risks underscores that developments in government budgets and taxation could alter the inflation path and thereby feed into future policy deliberations.

Analysts and market participants will watch forthcoming economic data releases and any statements about potential foreign exchange operations closely, given their potential to influence short-term currency moves and the central bank's policy calculus.

Risks

  • Fiscal policy choices could push consumer price inflation higher, creating uncertainty for monetary policy and inflation-sensitive asset classes.
  • Potential foreign exchange interventions introduce uncertainty for currency market participants and firms with FX exposure, as interventions can alter short-term exchange rate dynamics.
  • Reliance on incoming data means policy could shift if unexpected economic releases deviate from forecasts, affecting interest-rate expectations and fixed-income markets.

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