Currencies February 9, 2026

Australian pension fund increases currency hedging, says AUD undervalued as RBA tightens

HESTA raises Australian dollar exposure in international equity hedges amid RBA rate hikes and stronger commodity-driven fundamentals

By Hana Yamamoto
Australian pension fund increases currency hedging, says AUD undervalued as RBA tightens

HESTA, a major Australian pension fund with A$100 billion under management, has increased hedging of its international equity portfolio and boosted holdings of the Australian dollar, citing long-run valuation models that suggest the currency has been undervalued. The move comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to raise rates while many other major central banks hold or prepare to cut, and after the Australian dollar recently strengthened.

Key Points

  • HESTA has increased hedging of its international equities and lifted Australian dollar holdings, citing long-run valuation models that indicate the AUD is undervalued.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, while many other major central banks are holding rates or preparing to cut, supporting the AUD’s relative appeal.
  • HESTA holds A$23.45 billion in international shares and manages A$100 billion in total; increased hedging by major funds could exert upward pressure on the Australian dollar.

HESTA, one of Australia’s largest pension funds, has been increasing the hedging of its international equities allocation and raising its exposure to the Australian dollar on the view that the currency has been undervalued.

Jeff Brunton, head of portfolio management at HESTA, said the fund’s long-term valuation models have signalled for some time that the Australian dollar sits below its fair value. HESTA manages A$100 billion in total funds.

Brunton explained the rationale for heavier hedging in a phone interview: "We’re long-term investors and we are quite valuation driven and our long-run valuation models for the Australian dollar have been suggesting for quite a while now that it has been undervalued."

He outlined how the hedging works in practice: "If we’re holding international equities and the Australian dollar is rising, the value in Australian dollars and those international equities would be falling. But the hedge protects the portfolio in that environment. And we’ve had more Australian dollars and less foreign currency compared to our long-term settings."

HESTA is not alone. The fund is the second major Australian superannuation fund to lift its international equity hedging recently, following Australia’s second-largest fund, Australian Retirement Trust, which said it has also increased its hedging strategy lately.

Analysts have noted that increased buying of Australian dollars by pension funds to hedge international equity exposures could add upward pressure on the currency. The Australian dollar gained 4.3% in the previous month to trade at its highest level in three years and has gained almost another 1% in February to date.

The Reserve Bank of Australia last week raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, one of the few central banks still increasing rates while most major economies are either keeping policy rates on hold or preparing to cut.

HESTA reported it holds A$23.45 billion in international shares. Brunton said the fund has been running an underweight position in foreign currency versus its long-term plan: "We’ve been underweight foreign currency versus our long-term plan. And we think we’ve probably been underweight relative to how our peers would be managing foreign currency."

Market participants have been anticipating a stronger Australian dollar for some time. The trade surplus is widening as commodity prices have climbed. Benchmark 10-year government bond yields in Australia are the highest in the G10, and at the three-year tenor the yield advantage over the United States is the widest in nearly a decade.

Speculative positions in the Australian dollar shifted late last month, moving from a small net short to a net long stance among traders. The article uses an indicative exchange rate of $1 = 1.4255 Australian dollars.


Summary:

HESTA has increased hedging on its international equity portfolio and boosted holdings of the Australian dollar, citing valuation models that show the AUD has been undervalued. The move aligns with recent Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes and rising commodity-driven fundamentals that have supported the currency.

Risks

  • If global central banks’ paths diverge from current expectations, currency dynamics could shift and affect the effectiveness of hedges - this impacts pension funds and international equity portfolios.
  • Rising Australian dollar valuations could reduce the Australian dollar value of unhedged international equities, creating portfolio volatility for investors with low levels of currency hedging - this affects institutional investors and equity markets.
  • A change in speculative positioning or commodity price trends could reverse recent AUD gains, introducing uncertainty for currency-sensitive assets and fixed income yields.

More from Currencies

Dollar Climbs Toward Best Weekly Showing Since October as Safe-Haven Flows and Fed Tone Support the Greenback Feb 20, 2026 Asia FX Cautious Ahead of U.S. Inflation Print; Weak Japan CPI Clouds BOJ Hike Prospects Feb 20, 2026 Dollar Holds Most Gains After Fed Minutes; Euro Edges Lower Feb 19, 2026 Asia FX Slips as Dollar Strengthens; Aussie Stands Out on Firm Jobs Report Feb 19, 2026 UBS Lowers USD/ZAR Targets, Predicts Further Rand Gains through 2026 Feb 18, 2026