OPEC+ appears to be moving toward resuming scheduled increases in crude production quotas starting in April, according to three OPEC+ sources who spoke on condition of anonymity. The potential restart comes as the group prepares for stronger seasonal demand in summer and as prices have been supported by heightened tensions between the United States and Iran.
Officials from the bloc have signalled that restoring the previously paused increases would enable OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to reclaim market share. That dynamic is occurring at a time when several other OPEC+ members face constraints: Russia, Venezuela and Iran remain under various Western sanctions, and Kazakh output has been limited by a series of setbacks, according to the sources.
Eight OPEC+ producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman - are scheduled to meet on March 1. The same group has already implemented an increase in production quotas of roughly 2.9 million barrels per day from April through the end of December 2025, a volume the sources said equates to about 3% of global demand. Planned additional rises for January through March 2026 were frozen on the grounds of seasonally weaker consumption.
Brent crude has been trading near $68 a barrel, despite some expectations in the market that higher output could lead to a supply glut this year. That level remains close to a six-month peak of $71.89 reached in January amid tensions between the United States and Iran.
All three unnamed OPEC+ sources said the eight producers were leaning toward resuming production quota increases from April. In addition, three other sources familiar with OPEC+ thinking told reporters they expected increases to restart in April.
However, no definitive decision has been reached. Two of the OPEC+ sources cautioned that talks will continue in the weeks leading up to the March 1 meeting and that the issue remains under discussion. Requests for comment to OPEC and to authorities in Russia and Saudi Arabia were not immediately answered, the sources said.
Context and implications
The proposal to resume output increases would follow the earlier quota rise amounting to about 2.9 million barrels per day, and it reflects a balance between preparing for higher seasonal consumption and managing the influence of geopolitical tensions on price. The group has explicitly paused further scheduled increases for the early months of 2026 because of anticipated weaker demand in that period.
Observers will closely watch the outcome of the March 1 meeting of the eight producers and any further statements from OPEC+ participants in the coming weeks.