Commodities February 12, 2026

Oil steady in Asian trade as oversupply forecasts and inventory builds weigh on market

Brent and WTI hold modest gains after sharp slide; IEA warns of a large 2026 surplus and U.S. stocks jump sharply ahead of U.S. CPI data

By Avery Klein
Oil steady in Asian trade as oversupply forecasts and inventory builds weigh on market

Oil prices were mostly unchanged in Asian trading but remained on course for a weekly decline after a near 3% drop in the previous session. The International Energy Agency warned of a potential supply surplus in 2026 and global stockpiles expanded, while U.S. crude inventories rose sharply. Market attention has shifted toward U.S. inflation data and the pace of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

Key Points

  • Brent and WTI were up 0.1% in Asian trade at $67.56 and $62.87 per barrel respectively, after a near 3% slide in the prior session - this leaves both benchmarks on track for about 1% weekly losses.
  • The IEA warned of a possible global oil surplus of just over 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026 and reported rapid stockpile growth last year, while trimming its demand growth outlook.
  • U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.53 million barrels, the largest weekly build since January 2025, pointing to weak refinery demand and ample U.S. supply.

Oil markets were largely steady in Asian trading on Friday, though prices remained under pressure after a substantial fall the day before that left the market on track for a weekly drop.

As of 21:07 ET (02:07 GMT), Brent futures for April delivery were up 0.1% at $67.56 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude was also 0.1% higher at $62.87 per barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen nearly 3% in the previous session and were positioned to record roughly 1% losses for the week.


IEA flags large surplus and slower demand growth

The International Energy Agency, in its monthly oil market report, said the global market could see a surplus of just over 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026. The agency noted that global oil stockpiles expanded last year, with inventories building at one of the fastest rates since the pandemic, creating sizeable supply buffers.

The IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth, pointing to a softer macroeconomic backdrop and more moderate consumption gains. At the same time, non-OPEC supply was described as remaining robust. The combination of a weaker demand outlook and continued output growth was presented as reinforcing the risk of a prolonged period of oversupply.


U.S. inventories surge; refinery demand appears subdued

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a crude inventory build of 8.53 million barrels for the week, well above market expectations. The report described the increase as the largest weekly rise since January 2025 and said the large stock accumulation signalled subdued refinery demand alongside ample supply in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer.


Geopolitics and data focus

Investors also weighed geopolitical developments after Donald Trump said that negotiations toward a potential nuclear deal with Iran could last as long as a month. The prospect of protracted talks was seen as reducing immediate concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East and therefore tempering a geopolitical risk premium that had supported prices earlier.

Market participants remained cautious ahead of the U.S. consumer price index release scheduled later on Friday. That data could provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Strong January jobs data earlier in the month had already dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.


Bottom line

Prices are holding modest gains in early Asian trade but face downward pressure from agency forecasts of an oversupplied market and a large build in U.S. crude stocks. Geopolitical risk has eased somewhat amid comments on a drawn-out Iran negotiation process, while attention turns to U.S. CPI for potential implications for monetary policy.

Risks

  • Persistent oversupply risks from robust non-OPEC output and weaker demand growth could prolong downward pressure on oil prices - impacting the oil and energy sectors and commodity-linked markets.
  • Large U.S. inventory builds and subdued refinery demand increase the risk of continued price volatility and margin pressures for refiners and fuel suppliers.
  • Upcoming U.S. CPI data and the duration of U.S.-Iran nuclear deal talks introduce uncertainty for market sentiment and monetary policy expectations, affecting broader financial markets and interest rate-sensitive sectors.

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