Oil markets were largely steady in Asian trading on Friday, though prices remained under pressure after a substantial fall the day before that left the market on track for a weekly drop.
As of 21:07 ET (02:07 GMT), Brent futures for April delivery were up 0.1% at $67.56 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude was also 0.1% higher at $62.87 per barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen nearly 3% in the previous session and were positioned to record roughly 1% losses for the week.
IEA flags large surplus and slower demand growth
The International Energy Agency, in its monthly oil market report, said the global market could see a surplus of just over 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026. The agency noted that global oil stockpiles expanded last year, with inventories building at one of the fastest rates since the pandemic, creating sizeable supply buffers.
The IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth, pointing to a softer macroeconomic backdrop and more moderate consumption gains. At the same time, non-OPEC supply was described as remaining robust. The combination of a weaker demand outlook and continued output growth was presented as reinforcing the risk of a prolonged period of oversupply.
U.S. inventories surge; refinery demand appears subdued
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a crude inventory build of 8.53 million barrels for the week, well above market expectations. The report described the increase as the largest weekly rise since January 2025 and said the large stock accumulation signalled subdued refinery demand alongside ample supply in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer.
Geopolitics and data focus
Investors also weighed geopolitical developments after Donald Trump said that negotiations toward a potential nuclear deal with Iran could last as long as a month. The prospect of protracted talks was seen as reducing immediate concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East and therefore tempering a geopolitical risk premium that had supported prices earlier.
Market participants remained cautious ahead of the U.S. consumer price index release scheduled later on Friday. That data could provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Strong January jobs data earlier in the month had already dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.
Bottom line
Prices are holding modest gains in early Asian trade but face downward pressure from agency forecasts of an oversupplied market and a large build in U.S. crude stocks. Geopolitical risk has eased somewhat amid comments on a drawn-out Iran negotiation process, while attention turns to U.S. CPI for potential implications for monetary policy.