Commodities February 12, 2026

Oil Edges Lower as Iran Fears Subside and Oversupply Forecasts Loom

Brent and WTI show only modest moves after sharp midweek declines as demand-growth forecasts and rising Venezuelan output weigh

By Jordan Park
Oil Edges Lower as Iran Fears Subside and Oversupply Forecasts Loom

Oil markets were little changed on Friday following a sharp drop the day before, leaving both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate set for a second consecutive weekly decline. Prices eased after comments suggesting the United States may seek more time to negotiate with Iran, while an International Energy Agency outlook and data pointing to large U.S. crude builds signalled supply could outpace demand this year. Expectations that Venezuelan output will recover and U.S. steps to ease sanctions also contributed to downward pressure.

Key Points

  • Brent and WTI were largely unchanged on Friday after earlier sharp losses, with Brent at $67.55 and WTI at $62.85 at 0205 GMT.
  • Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting a possible deal with Iran reduced the immediate geopolitical risk premium, contributing to lower oil prices.
  • The International Energy Agency projected weaker demand growth and forecast that overall supply will exceed demand this year; U.S. crude stockpile builds and expectations of rising Venezuelan output added to downward pressure. Sectors impacted include energy producers, oil traders, and commodity-linked markets.

BEIJING, Feb 13 - Oil prices were mostly flat on Friday after a notable fall in the previous session, with both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on track for their second weekly declines. At 0205 GMT, Brent crude futures traded up 3 cents, or 0.04 percent, at $67.55 a barrel, following a 2.7 percent drop in the prior session. U.S. WTI rose 1 cent, or 0.02 percent, to $62.85 after an earlier 2.8 percent slide.

Brent is set to register a weekly fall of about 0.8 percent, while WTI is poised to lose roughly 1.1 percent for the week. Prices earlier in the week had climbed on concerns that the United States might launch action against Iran related to its nuclear programme, a dynamic that raised the near-term geopolitical risk premium in oil markets.

Those concerns eased after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States could reach a deal with Iran within about a month. The comments helped drive prices lower in the previous session by reducing the perceived immediacy of a conflict that might disrupt supply.

Analysts pointed to that shift in geopolitical risk as a factor weighing on recent oil moves. "There are signs the U.S. is seeking more time to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, reducing the near-term geopolitical risk premium," IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note, explaining some of the downward pressure on prices.

Beyond the changing geopolitical picture, the International Energy Agency's monthly report on Thursday projected weaker global oil demand growth for the year than previously anticipated and indicated overall supply is likely to exceed demand. That outlook added to the bearish tone.

Thursday's sell-off was further intensified by data showing a large build in U.S. crude inventories, a factor that pointed to softer near-term demand or greater domestic supply. Market participants also looked to Venezuela, where analysts and traders expect output to climb in the months ahead.

IG's Sycamore noted expectations that Venezuelan oil production could return toward pre-blockade levels, rising from roughly 880,000 barrels per day to about 1.2 million barrels per day. Market watchers also flagged policy moves in Washington that could facilitate increased Venezuelan flows.

A White House energy official said the U.S. Treasury will issue additional allowances this week that ease some sanctions on Venezuelan energy. U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright added on Thursday that oil sales from Venezuelan assets controlled by the United States have totalled over $1 billion since the capture of President Nicolas Maduro in January, and that those assets are expected to generate about $5 billion more over the next few months.


Market context and near-term focus

In the near term, oil market participants will be watching geopolitical developments around Iran, monthly demand projections from major agencies, U.S. inventory reports, and the pace of any recovery in Venezuelan output. Those factors have combined to limit price gains despite earlier risk-driven rallies.

Risks

  • Renewed geopolitical tensions with Iran could reverse the recent easing of the risk premium and push prices higher, affecting energy markets and oil-dependent sectors.
  • Weaker-than-expected global oil demand growth, as projected by the International Energy Agency, could sustain downward pressure on prices, affecting oil producers and energy-related equities.
  • Uncertainty around Venezuelan supply recovery and U.S. policy toward Venezuelan oil - including the timing and scope of new Treasury allowances - could introduce volatility to global crude flows and markets.

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