Commodities February 11, 2026

Oil edges higher as U.S.-Iran tensions and inventory swings shape market outlook

Geopolitical concerns underpin modest gains while a large U.S. crude build tempers upside

By Ajmal Hussain
Oil edges higher as U.S.-Iran tensions and inventory swings shape market outlook

Oil prices moved higher on Thursday morning as investors reacted to renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, even as a sizable U.S. crude inventory build limited gains. Market participants cited mixed signals: stronger-than-expected U.S. job data that supports demand expectations, and ongoing diplomatic uncertainty between Washington and Tehran that could tighten supply risk premiums.

Key Points

  • Geopolitical risk between the U.S. and Iran is supporting oil prices, with recent comments from U.S. leaders and indirect talks between diplomats keeping markets on alert - this primarily impacts the energy sector and commodity traders.
  • A substantial U.S. crude inventory increase - up 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels - limited price gains, influencing short-term trading strategies in oil and related financial markets.
  • Stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data, including accelerating job growth and a 4.3% unemployment rate, bolsters expectations for oil demand and influences investor positioning across commodities and equities sensitive to economic activity.

BEIJING, Feb 12 - Oil prices inched up on Thursday morning as markets weighed renewed worries about escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran against data showing a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories.

At 0126 GMT, Brent crude futures were trading 34 cents higher, or 0.49%, at $69.74 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 37 cents, or 0.57%, to $65.00. Both contracts had closed higher on Wednesday, with Brent futures gaining 0.87% and WTI rising by more than 1.05%.

Political commentary has kept market focus on the Middle East. U.S. President Donald Trump said after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that they reached no "definitive" agreement on how to move forward with Iran, but that negotiations with Tehran would continue. Earlier, on Tuesday, President Trump said he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if a deal is not reached with Iran, remarks made even as Washington and Tehran prepared to resume talks.

Diplomatic engagement has not been absent: U.S. and Iranian diplomats held indirect talks last week in Oman. The date and venue of the next round of U.S.-Iran talks have yet to be announced.

Market strategists highlighted a clear technical threshold in WTI. "A sustained break above a $65-$66 level would require further escalation in the Middle East, while any de-escalation could quickly trigger profit-taking back toward $60-$61 in WTI," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

Macroeconomic data added another dimension to price formation. The U.S. Labor Department reported that job growth unexpectedly accelerated in January and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, a sign of continued strength in the U.S. economy. "The resilient U.S. economy is also supporting oil demand expectations," said Mingyu Gao, chief researcher for energy and chemicals at China Futures.

Offsetting some of the bullish signals was a hefty build in U.S. crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week, a jump that far exceeded analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 793,000-barrel rise. That inventory swing capped some of the upward pressure on prices.

Still, Gao noted an important nuance in the supply picture: since the start of the year, global oil inventory builds have generally come in below expectations and net long positions in overseas crude oil futures and options have not yet reached overweight levels. On that basis, Gao said oil prices are "likely to remain biased to the upside, supported by the U.S.-Iran situation, tighter sanctions on Russian oil and expectations of reduced exports."


Market context

  • Prices moved up modestly in early Asian trading, with Brent at $69.74 and WTI at $65.00 at 0126 GMT.
  • Geopolitical developments between the U.S. and Iran continue to influence risk premia in crude markets.
  • Large U.S. crude inventory builds and strong U.S. labor market data are important countervailing forces shaping near-term price direction.

Risks

  • Escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions could push oil prices materially higher, increasing costs for consumers and raising input prices for energy-intensive industries.
  • A de-escalation in the Middle East could prompt rapid profit-taking and send WTI toward the $60-$61 range, affecting energy sector revenues and short-term trading positions.
  • Large and unexpected builds in U.S. crude inventories may cap upside in oil prices and introduce volatility for market participants exposed to physical crude and refined products.

More from Commodities

Cuba Turns to Solar as Fuel Supplies and Power Grid Strain Under U.S. Measures Feb 20, 2026 Citigroup Maps Out Oil Price Paths as U.S.-Iran Tensions Mount Feb 20, 2026 Oil Rises, Tech and Credit Nervous as Geopolitics and AI Spending Reshape Markets Feb 20, 2026 EPA to Roll Back Mercury and Air Toxics Limits on Coal Plants, Citing Grid Reliability Feb 20, 2026 Raymond James: U.S. Military Action in Iran 'Likely at This Stage' as Tensions Rise Feb 20, 2026