U.S. labor market readings for January surprised to the upside and prompted immediate adjustments to interest-rate expectations among investors. Payrolls expanded by 130,000 last month, nearly double the 70,000 that had been forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% even as more people participated in the labor force and average earnings growth accelerated.
Those outcomes, combined with downward revisions to 2025 payrolls that underscore the relatively muted hiring seen last year, leave the interpretation that the labor market has largely stabilized heading into 2026. That conclusion mirrors recent public comments from the Federal Reserve chair and has shifted thinking in the rates market back to where it stood after those remarks.
Market pricing still implies two rate cuts over the year, but the first of those is not fully priced until July. If the labor market has indeed stabilized, that affords the Fed greater latitude to concentrate on its inflation mandate - and inflation readings remain well above the central bank’s target. With that in mind, the upcoming Consumer Price Index report has become the immediate focal point for investors and policymakers.
Fiscal outlook and borrowing costs
Complicating the backdrop for U.S. interest rates, a recent nonpartisan 10-year budget and debt outlook from the Congressional Budget Office projects a higher cumulative deficit and rising debt levels over the coming decade. The CBO expects the cumulative 10-year deficit to be about $1.4 trillion, or 6%, higher than its January 2025 projection, and it forecasts the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio topping its 1946 peak of 106% in 2030. Those projections underline why U.S. Treasury borrowing costs are not the lowest in the world and add a fiscal angle to market pricing of interest rates.
Market moves and cross-asset themes
Despite the mix of labor, inflation and fiscal data, markets showed relative calm midweek. On one trading day, futures on U.S. shares were higher ahead of the open, European equities reached new highs, and U.S. Treasury yields settled back toward the middle of recent ranges.
One notable currency move was the offshore Chinese yuan, which continued its ascent to fresh three-year highs in the run-up to the Lunar New Year holidays. Equities in Europe benefited from generally upbeat corporate earnings, while the European Union held a special summit on economic reform and competitiveness in the background.
Deal activity highlights
In corporate finance, British asset manager Schroders agreed to be acquired by U.S. asset manager Nuveen for 9.9 billion pounds ($13.5 billion). Shares in Schroders jumped 29% on the takeover news. The deal would rank among the largest fund management transactions in Europe and marks a major change for the 222-year-old company. Observers have noted that the transaction may reflect the broader market rotation this year into so-called value stocks and markets, with relatively inexpensive UK-listed assets drawing increased investor interest.
Chart of the day
U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in January while the unemployment rate declined to 4.3%. Those signs of labor-market stability could give the Fed room to hold interest rates steady for a period while it monitors inflation trends.
Events to watch
- U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EST)
- U.S. 30-year Treasury bond auction
- Speeches by Fed officials: Stephen Miran and Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan
- U.S. corporate earnings releases from Airbnb, Expedia and Pinterest
Taken together, the stronger payrolls print, the drop in unemployment and rising wages have tightened the focus on inflation data and fiscal projections as key determinants of policy and market direction over the coming months. Investors will be watching incoming data and central bank commentary closely for clues as to when and how quickly policy might shift.