UBS updated its outlook on Dana Holding (NYSE: DAN) on Wednesday, increasing the firm’s price target from $35 to $40 and retaining a Buy recommendation. The revised target suggests roughly 20% upside from Dana’s prevailing share price of $33.36, though InvestingPro metrics indicate the stock might be trading above its Fair Value.
The brokerage pointed to Dana’s fourth-quarter 2025 disclosures as the principal driver of the upgrade, noting that the results contained an early preview of the company’s analyst day scheduled for March 25. Among the data released, management outlined a projected sales compound annual growth rate of approximately 7% for the period 2026 through 2030.
UBS highlighted several other forward-looking figures included in Dana’s materials. The company’s plans imply margin expansion on the order of about 400 basis points relative to 2026 estimates, alongside a projected 16% compound annual growth rate in EBITDA and a 19% compound annual growth rate in free cash flow over the same multi-year horizon.
Those projections, the bank said, underpin Dana’s recently increased authorization to repurchase shares. UBS characterized management as confident in achieving the stated targets and added that the company’s outlook does not appear to rely on large or speculative assumptions.
Dana carries a market capitalization of $3.75 billion and has delivered a strong equity performance, returning 117.1% over the past 12 months. The company had previously released preliminary fourth-quarter 2025 results, its outlook for 2026, and information on new business backlog ahead of the more detailed disclosures.
Separately, Dana reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.9 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations of $1.8 billion. The company attributed the outperformance to ongoing cost-saving measures and improved operational efficiency. Management also reaffirmed its constructive outlook for 2026.
Taken together, the quarterly results and the multi-year guidance highlight Dana’s focus on resource management and operational optimization, which UBS views as supportive of cash-flow durability and the enhanced buyback authorization. Market participants are watching the company’s progress as it executes the announced initiatives and prepares for the March analyst day.
Context and next steps
- Dana’s fourth-quarter disclosures provided the basis for UBS’s higher price target and maintained Buy rating.
- The company’s multi-year projections include about 7% sales CAGR from 2026-2030, roughly 400 basis points of margin expansion from 2026 estimates, 16% EBITDA CAGR and 19% free cash flow CAGR.
- Dana reported Q4 revenue of $1.9 billion, topping the $1.8 billion analyst expectation, and reaffirmed its 2026 outlook.
Investor considerations
- UBS believes the outlook supports Dana’s larger share repurchase program and described management as confident in meeting the stated targets.
- The firm noted the projections do not appear to be based on significant or speculative assumptions.
- Investors will likely focus on execution against the guidance and details presented at the March 25 analyst day.