UBS has raised its 12-month price objective for Global Payments Inc. to $87 from $80, while keeping its recommendation at Neutral. The brokerage's revision comes as the payments company set guidance for 2026 that calls for meaningful adjusted earnings-per-share growth and a high level of free cash flow conversion.
Market data shows the stock trading at $79.78, which sits materially under its calculated Fair Value and points to potential upside relative to current levels. UBS and market observers are flagging an earnings outlook that supports that view even as the firm maintains a neutral stance on the shares.
Global Payments issued guidance for adjusted EPS in 2026 of approximately $13.80 to $14.00. That range equates to roughly 13% to 15% growth compared with the legacy company’s 2025 base EPS of $12.20. In addition to the EPS target, the company expects adjusted free cash flow conversion to be above 90%.
On a valuation basis, the stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 13.84, with a consensus EPS forecast of $10.55 for fiscal 2026. UBS highlighted that the current P/E level is low relative to the near-term earnings growth implied by the 2026 guidance.
The 2026 outlook is constructed on an assumption of roughly 5% adjusted revenue growth on a foreign exchange neutral basis and excluding dispositions. That revenue projection incorporates contributions from mergers and acquisitions - most notably the buyout of its joint venture with HSBC in Mexico.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, Global Payments completed acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in its HSBC joint venture in Mexico for about $150 million. As a result of that transaction, the former joint venture's results will shift from equity income accounting to full consolidation on the company’s income statement.
The business acquired in Mexico has an estimated valuation of approximately $300 million and will contribute to revenue growth in 2026. UBS also noted that Global Payments’ pro-forma revenue for 2025 is approximately $12 billion, a figure that provides context for the 2026 growth projection.
Separately, Global Payments reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that modestly beat consensus on earnings while matching revenue expectations. EPS for the quarter was $3.18, just ahead of the $3.16 forecast, and revenue came in at $2.32 billion, in line with projections. Those results, taken together with the new guidance and the HSBC JV consolidation, have attracted analyst attention though specific firm-by-firm changes in ratings or targets were not specified in the available information.
The combination of a raised price target from UBS, the company’s own 2026 guidance, and the accounting change from the Mexico JV creates several lenses for investors to evaluate Global Payments. Valuation metrics such as the forward P/E versus projected EPS growth, and the near-term revenue impact from consolidation, are central to that assessment.
Summary
UBS raised its price target on Global Payments to $87 while keeping a Neutral rating. The company provided 2026 guidance targeting adjusted EPS of $13.80 to $14.00 and adjusted free cash flow conversion above 90%. The outlook assumes roughly 5% adjusted revenue growth on a foreign exchange neutral basis excluding dispositions, and factors in consolidation of the HSBC Mexico joint venture following a roughly $150 million acquisition of the remaining stake in Q4 2025. Fourth-quarter 2025 results showed EPS of $3.18 on revenue of $2.32 billion.
Key points
- UBS increased its price target to $87 from $80 while maintaining a Neutral rating - relevant to equity investors and financial analysts covering payments and fintech sectors.
- Company guidance for 2026 calls for adjusted EPS of $13.80 to $14.00, a 13% to 15% increase over the legacy 2025 base of $12.20, and projects adjusted free cash flow conversion above 90% - important for credit and corporate finance stakeholders.
- Consolidation of the HSBC Mexico joint venture after a Q4 2025 purchase (approximately $150 million for the remaining 50% stake) will shift accounting treatment from equity income to full consolidation and add to 2026 revenues, with the acquired business valued at roughly $300 million.
Risks and uncertainties
- Foreign exchange sensitivity - the revenue outlook is presented on a foreign exchange neutral basis; currency movements could alter reported results and materially affect revenue growth figures relevant to multinational operations and investors.
- M&A accounting and integration - the Mexico JV buyout changes income statement treatment from equity income to full consolidation. Integration or accounting adjustments could create variability in near-term reported metrics for the payments and merchant services segments.
- Guidance execution - the 2026 EPS and free cash flow conversion targets are forward-looking projections; failure to meet these targets would affect valuation and sector sentiment across financials and payments technology.
These items form the near-term framework for evaluating Global Payments as it moves into fiscal 2026, balancing a raised price target against a Neutral recommendation and a set of operational and accounting shifts that will influence reported results.