Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

UBS Lifts Deere Price Target to $775, Citing Signs Earnings Downcycle Is Near Bottom

Quarterly beat, stronger bookings and segment shipments prompt a series of analyst upward revisions

By Marcus Reed DE
UBS Lifts Deere Price Target to $775, Citing Signs Earnings Downcycle Is Near Bottom
DE

UBS raised its Deere & Co. price target to $775 from $535 and held a Buy rating after the company’s quarterly results exceeded expectations and bookings showed improvement. The firm sees Deere approaching the nadir of its earnings downcycle and anticipates earnings growth beginning in the latter half of 2026, supported by momentum in small agriculture and construction segments and expected replacement demand in large agriculture in 2027.

Key Points

  • UBS raised its price target on Deere to $775 from $535 and maintained a Buy rating, citing a quarterly beat and stronger bookings as evidence the earnings downcycle may be nearing its trough - sectors impacted: agricultural equipment, industrials, cyclical stocks.
  • UBS expects Deere to begin seeing earnings growth in the latter half of 2026, with current momentum coming from small agriculture and construction segments and possible large-agriculture replacement demand in 2027 - sectors impacted: farm equipment, construction machinery.
  • Multiple firms updated targets upward after Deere’s Q1 beat: Truist to $793, RBC to $736, Bernstein SocGen to $615, Oppenheimer to $715, and BMO to $500, reflecting broader analyst optimism following raised fiscal 2026 guidance.

UBS raised its price target on Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) to $775 from $535 on Thursday while retaining a Buy recommendation, citing a quarterly beat and improved bookings that bolster confidence the company is nearing the end of an earnings downcycle.

The analyst house said recent results and order trends point to a turning point, with earnings growth forecast to begin later in the second half of 2026. UBS highlighted that current upside is being driven by Small Ag and Construction, and it continues to expect some large-agriculture replacement demand to emerge in 2027.

Despite the stock’s recent upward move, UBS observed that many investors remain guarded about the 2027 outlook. The firm said that as replacement demand in large agriculture becomes more visible, investor sentiment should gradually improve. UBS also flagged spring orders as the next material catalyst, with an expectation of double-digit growth in that ordering period.

UBS acknowledged that Deere’s valuation now sits above historical norms, but noted that recent performance has been aided by a rotation back into cyclical names, which has supported the share-price recovery.


Deere’s own first-quarter results provide the backdrop for these analyst moves. The company reported quarterly net income that exceeded consensus estimates by 20%, prompting management to raise fiscal 2026 net income guidance by roughly $375 million and to project full-year earnings per share of about $17.50. That upside was attributed primarily to higher-than-expected shipments in the Small Ag & Turf and Construction & Forestry segments.

Following those results, several other brokerages adjusted their targets upward. Truist Securities lifted its price target to $793 and maintained a Buy rating. RBC Capital Markets raised its target to $736, citing the strong earnings print and an upward revision to Equipment Operations net income guidance for 2026. Bernstein SocGen Group moved its target to $615 and reiterated that Deere’s first-quarter net income was 20% above expectations, with reported earnings per share of $2.42.

Oppenheimer raised its target to $715, calling out robust construction momentum and a shift from negative to positive earnings revisions. BMO Capital increased its target to $500, noting improved sentiment and suggesting that the company may be past its last earnings cut. Collectively, these actions reflect a cluster of positive reassessments by analysts in response to Deere’s quarterly performance and the company's upward guidance adjustment.


For market participants and industry observers, the key variables to watch remain the trajectory of spring orders, the sustainability of shipments in Small Ag & Turf and Construction & Forestry, and the timing and scale of replacement demand in large agriculture. Analysts point to those metrics as drivers that will determine whether the recent momentum evolves into a sustained earnings recovery across Deere’s equipment operations.

Risks

  • Investor caution about the 2027 outlook could temper market response until replacement demand in large agriculture becomes clearly evident - markets and agriculture equipment sector impacted.
  • Deere’s valuation is higher than historical levels, leaving less margin for disappointment if order growth or shipment momentum slows - equity markets and cyclical industrials impacted.
  • The next meaningful catalyst cited is spring orders, where UBS expects double-digit growth; failure to meet that expectation would introduce downside risk to the outlook - procurement and equipment manufacturing sectors impacted.

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