The U.S. Supreme Court has constrained the administration’s power to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a decision that analysts say will change the near-term outlook for apparel and footwear import levies. Needham identified Steve Madden (NASDAQ:SHOO) as one of the companies most likely to gain from the ruling.
Needham analyst Tom Nikic argued that Steve Madden’s profile - substantial exposure to tariffs, a revenue base concentrated in the U.S., and a relatively large cost-of-goods-sold line as a share of sales - positions the company to benefit more than most peers covered by the firm. The market has already rewarded the company’s shares with a sharp run-up, delivering a 49% return over the past six months. Steve Madden carries a market capitalization of $2.88 billion and recorded $2.36 billion in revenue over the past twelve months.
Nikic noted that investor concern had centered on Steve Madden’s private label business sold to mass merchants, principally Walmart and Target. The analyst highlighted that tariffs had weighed on the economics of low-margin private label goods, contributing to a roughly 20% decline in that business in 2025, with the potential for a similar magnitude of decline in 2026.
According to the analyst, the Supreme Court decision improves the economics of selling private label footwear from the retailers’ perspective and could prompt mass merchants to allocate more shelf space and purchasing to these categories. Nikic cautioned that the administration could seek alternative legal pathways to impose tariffs in the future, but characterized the ruling as a near-term positive for the apparel and footwear sector.
Outside of Needham’s note, several brokerages updated views and price targets for Steve Madden in recent coverage. Williams Trading increased its price objective to $52.00 from $45.00 and kept a Buy rating, citing strong sales activity over the Thanksgiving weekend, with particular strength in boots, flats, and sandals. BTIG reiterated a Buy rating and a $50.00 price target, pointing to momentum in the company’s branded footwear operations even as they expect continued headwinds in the private label channel.
Not all firms were upbeat. Jefferies moved to downgrade Steve Madden from Hold to Underperform and trimmed its price target to $30.00, citing growing pressures in wholesale channels and resistance from major retail partners to the company’s pricing initiatives. UBS maintained a Neutral rating with a $43.00 price target, noting the company’s recent acquisition of Kurt Geiger and emphasizing the need to monitor how that purchase influences long-term growth.
Needham also adjusted its view on a large industry peer, downgrading Nike to Hold amid concerns that the sportswear maker’s turnaround is progressing slowly despite strategic initiatives from CEO Elliott Hill. These shifts underscore the range of analyst perspectives on near-term demand dynamics, wholesale relationships, and the effects of tariff policy across the footwear and apparel industries.
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Key developments noted in coverage
- Supreme Court ruling limits tariff authority under IEEPA, affecting most incremental apparel and footwear tariffs planned for 2025.
- Needham cites Steve Madden’s combination of tariff exposure, domestic revenue weighting, and high cost of goods sold as reasons it should benefit from the ruling.
- Brokerage actions varied: Williams Trading and BTIG maintained Buy ratings and raised or held targets; Jefferies downgraded to Underperform; UBS stayed Neutral after the Kurt Geiger acquisition.
Market context and recent performance
The stock’s recent performance reflects investor enthusiasm for a company seen as well positioned if tariff headwinds ease: a 49% share-price gain over six months, a $2.88 billion market capitalization, and trailing-twelve-month revenue of $2.36 billion.
Summary
The Supreme Court’s limitation of IEEPA-based tariff authority is a potential tailwind for apparel and footwear companies exposed to incremental duties, and Needham views Steve Madden as one of the primary beneficiaries due to its exposure profile and cost structure. Analysts across the sell side diverge on near-term prospects, with some raising targets on signs of retail strength and others lowering ratings amid wholesale and private label challenges.