Overview
Stifel raised its price target on Tandem Diabetes Care (NASDAQ:TNDM) to $22.00 from $20.00 while maintaining a Hold rating. The stock is trading at $24.72, which is higher than both Stifel’s new target and InvestingPro’s Fair Value estimate of $21.32, a backdrop that suggests the shares may be trading above implied valuation benchmarks.
Quarterly performance and trends
The firm described the quarterly results as solid, with revenue in both the U.S. and international markets coming in ahead of expectations. Stifel highlighted an improvement in U.S. new pump trends versus the second and third quarters of 2025, even though new pump placements remain down on a year-over-year basis.
Guidance and strategic shifts
Tandem’s 2026 guidance came in below consensus estimates, a shortfall Stifel attributed to an intentional change in the company’s go-to-market approach. The introduction of a pay-as-you-go model is expected to weigh on year-over-year revenue growth for 2026 because it changes how and when revenue is recognized, but the firm noted the model should make devices more accessible and support pump shipments across Tandem’s product lineup - including t:slim, Mobi, and the likely approval of tubeless Mobi in the second half of 2026.
The published guidance implies mid-single-digit percentage growth for full-year 2026, with year-over-year revenue growth projected to accelerate from the first-quarter 2026 baseline. Management pointed to increasing overall momentum, noting that two-year stacked growth for new U.S. pump users has improved for the past three quarters and that company leadership expects revenue growth to accelerate in 2027.
Other analyst actions following results
Following the fourth-quarter release, which surpassed expectations on both revenue and earnings, several other firms revised their views. Piper Sandler raised its price target to $21 and kept a Neutral rating. Mizuho increased its target to $22, attributing the move to a $13 million revenue beat that was driven by record global pump shipments and an adjusted EBITDA margin that exceeded expectations by 250 basis points.
BofA Securities upgraded Tandem from Underperform to Neutral and lifted its price target to $30, calling out the company’s shift toward a more profitable model with a greater emphasis on the pharmacy channel and pay-as-you-go sales. Baird also upgraded the stock to Outperform and raised its target to $30, citing the anticipated mid-2026 launch of the Mobi-T insulin pump as an important factor behind its positive stance.
Collectively, these analyst moves reflect growing optimism among some market participants about Tandem Diabetes Care’s medium-term prospects, even as 2026 revenue guidance remains below Street estimates of roughly 8.5% year-over-year growth. Tandem itself set fiscal 2026 total sales guidance at 5% to 7% year-over-year growth.
Key points
- Stifel raised its price target to $22 from $20 and kept a Hold rating despite a revenue beat.
- The company’s pay-as-you-go go-to-market strategy is expected to pressure 2026 year-over-year revenue growth while improving device accessibility and supporting pump shipments.
- Multiple brokerages adjusted ratings and targets after Q4 results, with some upgrades and higher targets reflecting shipment strength and margin outperformance.
Risks and uncertainties
- 2026 guidance is below Street estimates, creating potential downside to short-term revenue expectations for investors and affecting health-care and med-tech sector earnings projections.
- The transition to a pay-as-you-go model introduces timing and recognition risk for revenue, with implications for fiscal reporting and valuation in the medical device market.
- Regulatory timing - including the likely second-half 2026 approval of tubeless Mobi - remains a factor for shipment acceleration and market access, and any delays could affect growth assumptions.
Conclusion
Tandem’s quarter delivered upside on near-term sales and margins, prompting a mix of cautious and more bullish responses from analysts. The company’s strategic pivot toward pay-as-you-go and pharmacy distribution is being positioned as a lever to broaden access and boost shipments, though it is expected to dampen reported revenue growth in 2026. Management and several analysts remain optimistic about acceleration in 2027, while the market price currently sits above several analyst benchmarks.