HSBC announced on Thursday that it has downgraded Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) from a buy rating to hold, while simultaneously lifting its price target to $131 from $122. The bank said the change reflects valuation concerns that have emerged despite what it described as solid operational performance from the retailer.
At the time of HSBC's action, Walmart's share price was reported at $124.87, carrying a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.13 and a PEG ratio of 2.39. HSBC highlighted those metrics as indicators of a premium valuation that warrants a more cautious stance.
Analyst Joe Thomas of HSBC trimmed the firm's near-term earnings outlook following guidance from Walmart that Thomas characterized as weaker-than-expected. The adjustments included a 2% reduction to adjusted EBIT estimates and a 4% cut to earnings per share projections. HSBC noted it believes Walmart's new management team is taking a conservative approach in framing its outlook.
Despite those downward tweaks, HSBC said it positioned its forecasts at the upper end of Walmart's guided range and baked in a larger share buyback program based on the company's commentary. Company management, HSBC added, has indicated it has not observed any change in consumer behavior or in Walmart's key performance indicators.
The bank also observed that Walmart's historical valuation discount to Costco has largely disappeared, even though consensus EPS growth forecasts for Walmart are slightly slower. HSBC based its new $131 price target on applying a Costco P/E multiple of 46 times to Walmart's expected earnings.
In its analysis, InvestingPro places Walmart among stocks that appear overvalued relative to Fair Value and lists the company on its Most Overvalued list. The platform points users to a Pro Research Report on Walmart as one of more than 1,400 available reports that synthesize data for investors.
HSBC said it has introduced fiscal year 2029 estimates for Walmart for the first time. The bank cautioned that slightly weaker-than-expected guidance for fiscal 2027 may limit near-term momentum for analyst forecast upgrades.
Recent company results provide context for the bank's reassessment. Walmart reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results that marginally exceeded forecasts: adjusted earnings per share of $0.74 versus an expected $0.73, and revenue of $190.7 billion compared with a consensus estimate of $190.4 billion. HSBC and other market participants noted the outperformance, while also observing that no significant analyst upgrades or downgrades followed the earnings release.
Walmart's ability to beat the quarter's earnings and revenue estimates was cited as evidence of its continued operational strength, even as HSBC's valuation-focused view led to the rating change.
Summary of HSBC's moves and company performance:
- HSBC downgraded Walmart from buy to hold and raised the price target to $131 from $122.
- The bank reduced adjusted EBIT forecasts by 2% and EPS by 4% after management's guidance, while setting forecasts at the top of Walmart's guided range and assuming a larger buyback.
- Walmart reported Q4 2026 EPS of $0.74 and revenue of $190.7 billion, both marginally above consensus.
The bank's note underscores a tension investors often weigh: operational results and cash-return programs versus elevated market valuations. HSBC's move signals caution that, in its view, the market may already be pricing in favorable outcomes for Walmart, narrowing the historical valuation headroom relative to peers such as Costco.