Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

D.A. Davidson Sticks With Buy on Akamai After Strong Q4; Street Reaction Mixed on Guidance

Analyst reiteration follows fourth-quarter outperformance even as 2026 capex and margin guide weigh on after-hours trading

By Avery Klein AKAM
D.A. Davidson Sticks With Buy on Akamai After Strong Q4; Street Reaction Mixed on Guidance
AKAM

D.A. Davidson reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $125.00 price target on Akamai Technologies after the company posted fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Akamai’s Cloud and Infrastructure Services unit accelerated revenue growth to 44% year-over-year at constant currency, and management forecast further acceleration for 2026. The company also disclosed a multiyear $200 million contract with a major U.S. tech customer focused largely on AI inference. Shares slipped in after-hours trading after 2026 capital expenditure and operating margin guidance landed below some investors' expectations, though several other firms raised price targets or upgraded their outlooks.

Key Points

  • Akamai’s Cloud and Infrastructure Services grew 44% year-over-year at constant currency in Q4, up from 39% the prior quarter and near the top of guidance.
  • Management guided the Cloud and Infrastructure Services segment to 45%–50% year-over-year growth for 2026 and disclosed a four-year, $200 million contract with most spending expected on AI inference.
  • Despite the revenue beat and analyst support, shares fell about 8% in after-hours trading after 2026 capital expenditure and operating margin guidance disappointed some investors; several firms still raised price targets or upgraded the stock.

D.A. Davidson reiterated its Buy rating on Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM) and maintained a $125.00 price target following the company’s fourth-quarter report.

Akamai delivered quarterly results that topped expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Its Cloud and Infrastructure Services division showed notable momentum, accelerating to 44% year-over-year growth on a constant-currency basis. That pace improved from the prior quarter’s 39% growth and sat toward the upper end of the company’s 40% to 45% guidance band.

Management set a forward-looking target for the Cloud and Infrastructure Services segment to accelerate further, guiding to 45% to 50% year-over-year growth in 2026. The company also disclosed a four-year agreement with a major U.S. technology company with a total contract value of $200 million; the vast majority of expected spending under that deal is anticipated to be for AI inference workloads.

Despite the revenue strength and the sizable contract, Akamai’s stock fell roughly 8% in after-hours trading when the company’s 2026 capital expenditure and operating margin guidance came in below some market expectations. The share price dropped to $99.02 from a prior close of $109.31. Over the past six months the stock remains up 44%.

According to InvestingPro analysis referenced in company commentary, the shares appear undervalued versus a Fair Value assessment at current levels, a view that suggests the after-hours selloff could present an entry opportunity for some investors. D.A. Davidson said it would act as a buyer on any such weakness.

Available InvestingPro data indicated Akamai retains a "GOOD" financial health score, with liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations. Investors seeking more detailed company metrics and modeling were pointed to the firm’s Pro Research Report, one of more than 1,400 reports intended to convert complex data into actionable research.

Other broker-dealer actions followed the quarterly release. RBC Capital raised its price target from $90 to $100 while keeping a Sector Perform rating. KeyBanc lifted its target to $120 and cited Akamai’s capex guidance as a constructive signal for future GPU-related revenue. The company’s 2026 capital expenditure was projected to reach 24.5% of revenue, which the commentary described as the highest level in recent years.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Akamai from Underweight to Overweight and increased its price target to $115, characterizing the company as approaching an important inflection in its business model evolution. Scotiabank raised its target to $105 and highlighted Akamai’s prospects in AI infrastructure, referencing the company’s partnership with NVIDIA and the introduction of its Inference Cloud.

In addition to commercial and capital plans, Akamai announced a strategic collaboration with Visa intended to strengthen security for AI-powered commerce. The initiative will integrate Visa’s Trusted Agent Protocol with Akamai’s security technologies to address security challenges arising as AI agents participate more actively in consumer transactions.


Key takeaways:

  • Akamai beat fourth-quarter revenue and earnings expectations; Cloud and Infrastructure Services growth accelerated to 44% year-over-year.
  • Company guided for further acceleration to 45%–50% year-over-year growth in 2026 and disclosed a $200 million, four-year contract focused largely on AI inference.
  • Shares dipped after-hours due to 2026 capex and operating margin guidance that fell short of some expectations, even as multiple analysts raised price targets or upgraded ratings.

Market and sector impacts: Cloud services and AI infrastructure sectors are directly implicated by the revenue and contract disclosures. GPU-related revenue expectations and elevated capex guidance also touch the broader semiconductors and data-center investment cycle narratives. Cybersecurity and payments sectors are affected by the partnership focused on securing AI-driven commerce.

Risks

  • Lower-than-expected 2026 capital expenditure and operating margin guidance prompted a sharp after-hours share decline, illustrating sensitivity of the stock to forward guidance - this impacts equity market sentiment.
  • A large, multi-year contract concentrated with a major U.S. tech company and a large share of spending earmarked for AI inference creates execution and revenue-concentration uncertainty for Akamai - relevant to cloud and AI infrastructure markets.
  • Elevated 2026 capex pegged at 24.5% of revenue - the highest in recent years - could pressure near-term operating margins if revenue or unit economics do not match expectations, affecting capital-intensive segments like data centers and GPU infrastructure.

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