Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

Citizens Cuts Invitation Homes Price Target, Flags Local Oversupply Pressures

Analyst keeps Market Outperform rating as rent trends weaken but underlying operating income edges higher

By Jordan Park INVH
Citizens Cuts Invitation Homes Price Target, Flags Local Oversupply Pressures
INVH

Citizens reduced its price target for Invitation Homes to $35 from $40 while retaining a Market Outperform rating, citing oversupply in some markets that has driven new lease rate growth to -4.1% in the latest quarter. Same-store net operating income rose 0.7% despite the drop in new lease rates. The stock trades near its 52-week low, yields 4.67%, and recently posted an earnings beat for fourth-quarter 2025.

Key Points

  • Citizens cut its price target on Invitation Homes to $35 from $40 but maintained a Market Outperform rating.
  • New lease rate growth dropped to -4.1% in the latest quarter while same-store net operating income rose 0.7%.
  • INVH shares trade near a 52-week low and yield 4.67%; the company reported a fourth-quarter 2025 EPS beat of $0.24 versus a $0.18 forecast.

Citizens has lowered its price objective on Invitation Homes (INVH) to $35 from $40, while leaving its Market Outperform recommendation intact. The analyst firm pointed to oversupply in specific local markets as a drag on the company’s core leasing dynamics.

In the most recent quarter new lease rate growth declined to -4.1%. That metric contrasts with a modest expansion in same-store net operating income, which increased by 0.7% over the same period.

At the time of reporting the shares were trading at $25.68, close to a 52-week low of $25.29. The stock carries a dividend yield of 4.67%.

Citizens said it expects new lease rate growth to inflect over the coming year. The firm also noted that the asset class should benefit from the spread between the cost of ownership and rental rates, a dynamic it believes supports long-term performance despite near-term leasing headwinds.

The analyst reiterates a recommendation to hold the shares in part based on the company’s discount to net asset value. Data show that INVH is trading near its 52-week low with a PEG ratio of 0.83, a measure the firm highlighted when discussing valuation versus growth expectations.

On the corporate results front Invitation Homes reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.24, exceeding the consensus forecast of $0.18. That outturn represented a 33.33% earnings surprise versus expectations. Despite the upside, the stock fell in after-hours trade, declining 3.56% to close at $26.68, a move the market may have driven in part by broader market trends or investor concerns about future guidance.

These developments underscore a mixed set of signals for the single-family rental REIT: weakening pricing power on new leases paired with slight growth in operating income and an earnings beat that did not prevent a negative near-term market reaction.


What this means for investors

Investors should weigh the company’s current valuation metrics and dividend yield against near-term leasing pressures. The recommendation from Citizens rests on a view that the company trades at a discount to net asset value and that some of the current rent weakness will stabilize within the next year.

Further analysis and company research materials are available for investors seeking deeper detail on the company’s portfolio and operating metrics.

Risks

  • Local oversupply in certain markets that has already pressured new lease rate growth - impacts the residential rental and REIT sectors.
  • Market reaction to earnings and guidance that can produce near-term share price volatility despite positive operating metrics - impacts equity investors in single-family rental REITs.
  • Valuation reliance on discount to net asset value and expectations for lease-rate inflection that may not materialize within the anticipated timeframe - affects investors focused on NAV-driven strategies and income-oriented portfolios.

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