Cantor Fitzgerald has reiterated an Overweight rating on Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE: ONTO) and kept a $275.00 price target following the company's latest quarterly report. At the time of the update the shares were trading at $211.28 and the company had a market capitalization of $10.5 billion. InvestingPro data referenced with the update indicates the shares are trading above its Fair Value estimate.
The broker called out the company's revenue guidance for early 2026 as a key driver for the positive stance. Management guided first-quarter revenue to a midpoint of $280 million versus consensus of $272 million, and set second-quarter revenue above $300 million versus consensus of $287 million. Cantor Fitzgerald framed that guidance as reflecting improved visibility and stronger customer demand across Onto's Advanced Packaging and Advanced Nodes businesses.
On product-line expectations, Onto's management projects Advanced Packaging revenue to expand by more than 30% in 2026, citing demand tied to CoWoS and HBM and applying conservative assumptions around Dragonfly Gen5 adoption. For Advanced Nodes, management expects revenue growth at least in line with overall wafer fabrication equipment growth, which it noted could range from 10% to 20% year-over-year. By contrast, power-oriented businesses including Semilab are forecast to decline by roughly 10% year-over-year.
The company's balance sheet and near-term order book were also emphasized. InvestingPro assigns Onto Innovation a "GREAT" financial health score, and an InvestingPro Tip highlights that the company carries more cash than debt, a position noted as supportive of continued growth investments. Over the past three months the company's backlog nearly doubled and now provides approximately two quarters of coverage, according to the update. Onto also signed a volume purchase agreement with an HBM manufacturer valued at more than $240 million over the next two years.
Cantor Fitzgerald provided its own earnings projections, estimating earnings per share of $7.00 and $9.25 or more for the respective periods, compared with consensus figures of $6.26 and $7.66. The firm's $275 price target is characterized as reflecting 30 times 2027 earnings per share upside.
Additional commentary included several recent developments spotlighting the company. Management's first-quarter 2026 revenue guidance implies approximately 5% sequential growth, an increase the company said remains steady when excluding the impact of the Semilab acquisition. Cantor Fitzgerald projects first-half 2026 revenue in a range of $575 million to $600 million versus consensus estimates of $554 million, and anticipates Onto Innovation will exceed earnings expectations and raise guidance.
Other analysts are active on the name as well. Needham has raised its price target for Onto Innovation to $275 while maintaining a Buy rating. Cantor Fitzgerald is also noted in coverage as having moved the stock to Overweight from Neutral while setting the same $275 target. In analyst commentary included in the coverage, Matthew Prisco of Cantor Fitzgerald forecasts substantial earnings growth in 2026 and 2027, predicting EPS of $7.00 or more and $9.25 or more for those years compared with consensus figures cited at $6.23 and $7.66, respectively.
Taken together, the elements cited by Cantor Fitzgerald and other analysts - stronger packaging demand, a larger backlog, a multimillion-dollar HBM volume agreement, and a cash-positive balance sheet - form the basis for the firm's reiterated Overweight rating and maintained $275 price target. At the same time, the update also notes specific areas of weakness, such as expected declines in power businesses including Semilab, which temper parts of the company outlook.
Summary
Following quarterly results, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating and a $275 price target on Onto Innovation, citing improved revenue visibility, strong demand in Advanced Packaging and Advanced Nodes, a near-doubled backlog and a >$240 million HBM volume agreement. Management projects >30% Advanced Packaging revenue growth in 2026 while forecasting a ~10% decline in power businesses including Semilab. InvestingPro ratings show a strong financial position, with more cash than debt.
Key Points
- Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed Overweight and a $275 price target, with EPS estimates of $7.00 and $9.25+ vs consensus of $6.26 and $7.66.
- Management guided Q1 revenue to a $280 million midpoint and Q2 revenue above $300 million, citing stronger demand in Advanced Packaging and Advanced Nodes.
- Company backlog nearly doubled recently and includes a volume purchase agreement with an HBM manufacturer worth more than $240 million over two years; InvestingPro rates the company’s financial health as "GREAT."
Risks / Uncertainties
- Power segment weakness - Management forecasts approximately a 10% year-over-year decline in power businesses including Semilab, which could weigh on consolidated results.
- Valuation - InvestingPro data indicates the shares may be trading above their Fair Value estimate, introducing valuation risk relative to current market pricing.
- Revenue sensitivity - Guidance assumes stronger demand in Advanced Packaging and Advanced Nodes; any deterioration in those end markets would affect the company’s revenue trajectory and analyst estimates.