Bank of America Securities has increased its 12-month price target for CF Industries Holdings Inc. to $86 from $78, while keeping an Underperform rating on the stock. CF shares are trading above the revised target at $96.27 and have climbed 29% year-to-date. The company currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.72.
The upgrade in the price objective follows CF's fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $821 million, which beat BofA's estimate of $754 million. BofA attributed roughly $50 million of that upside to lower natural gas prices, with effective hedging cited as a contributing factor. The remainder of the beat was ascribed to stronger price realizations, as CF made the most of tight market dynamics in the quarter.
BofA noted that the market conditions that aided results in the fourth quarter remain tight entering 2026, but the firm counseled caution on ammonia markets for the year ahead. The analyst identified potential downside catalysts in the form of nitrogen unit fungibility, asset restarts and higher Chinese exports. BofA added that these pressures may not surface until after the Northern Hemisphere spring season.
The research note also flagged timing and cost considerations tied to CF's BluePoint project. BofA expects that market pressure could coincide with a period of elevated capital expenditures on BluePoint. Additionally, the natural gas tailwind experienced in the fourth quarter is expected to reverse - becoming a material headwind in the first quarter of 2026 amid market volatility, according to the firm.
Despite BofA's guarded stance, platform analysis cited in the company's coverage indicates CF may still be undervalued. That assessment assigns CF a "GREAT" financial health score on the platform referenced in the coverage.
Several corporate actions and updates accompany the analyst commentary. CF Industries declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, payable on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 13, 2026. The company has scheduled its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results for release on February 18, 2026, followed by a conference call the next day.
On the sustainability and joint-venture fronts, CF has teamed with POET to pilot a low-carbon fertilizer supply chain intended to reduce the carbon intensity of corn production and support the production of low-carbon ethanol. Separately, CF reported that a conditional ownership option held by JERA Co., Inc. in the Blue Point Number One, LLC joint venture has expired. The Blue Point joint venture - focused on low-carbon ammonia production - lists CF Industries as holding a 40% stake.
In analyst moves beyond BofA, Rothschild Redburn downgraded CF's rating from Neutral to Sell. That firm set a price target of $72.00 and cited concerns that normalizing fertilizer prices could weigh on profitability, and that declines in natural gas costs may not be sufficient to offset potential earnings pressure.
Context for market participants
- CF's near-term performance will be influenced by natural gas price movements, fertilizer price dynamics and timing of project spending.
- Sectors directly affected include agriculture, industrial chemicals and energy markets tied to natural gas.