Benchmark lowered its price target for Builders FirstSource Inc. to $138 from $142 and maintained a Buy rating on the shares. The stock was trading at $110.36 at the time of the note, below its 52-week high of $151.03.
The analyst cited weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results reported on Tuesday as the primary driver of the adjustment. Management commentary and reported metrics pointed to softer sales over the quarter, conditions the firm attributed to a mix of affordability headwinds, muted consumer confidence and depressed commodity prices that reduced activity for customers.
Benchmark also highlighted early indications for 2026, noting that severe weather in the first quarter has materially disrupted activity at the start of the year and could delay any visible signs of demand stabilization. Feedback from industry contacts at the Builders Show reflected a cautious mood: meetings there showed a muted tone around new construction, with a flat market cited as representing the upper bound of expectations among attendees.
In response to the results, Benchmark trimmed its earnings-per-share forecasts by $0.25 for both the current fiscal year and the next, bringing estimates to $6.50 for this year and $7.00 for the next. The firm said this adjustment is consistent with broader analyst sentiment, noting that nine analysts have revised their earnings estimates downwards for the upcoming period.
While the research note expressed some cautious optimism that conditions could improve as the year progresses, the analyst said there is not yet clear evidence that the market has found a bottom. The note reiterated that Builders FirstSource is well-positioned to help builders navigate the present headwinds, but the firm stopped short of claiming an imminent recovery in end-market demand.
The company’s published fourth-quarter figures underscored the pressure on near-term performance. Builders FirstSource reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.12, below the consensus expectation of $1.27, representing an 11.81% negative surprise. Revenue for the period came in at $3.4 billion, versus a forecast of $3.46 billion, a shortfall of 1.73%.
Investors have reacted to those misses and the uncertain demand signals. The earnings release and associated commentary have become focal points for analysts and shareholders as the company navigates current market conditions. No other material developments - such as mergers or acquisitions - were disclosed around the earnings announcement, and there have been no recent analyst upgrades or downgrades reported.
These developments continue to inform the outlook for Builders FirstSource as it balances operational positioning against subdued demand indicators and short-term weather-related disruptions.
Summary of key takeaways
- Price target cut to $138 from $142 while Buy rating is retained.
- Q4 2025 EPS of $1.12 missed the $1.27 estimate; revenue of $3.4B missed the $3.46B forecast.
- Near-term demand outlook complicated by affordability, low commodity prices, muted consumer confidence and severe Q1 weather.