Analyst Ratings February 19, 2026

Benchmark Sticks With Buy on Wingstop After Q4 Beat; $320 Target Intact

Chain posts stronger-than-expected sales and margins, cites Smart Kitchen and loyalty rollout as catalysts into fiscal 2026

By Jordan Park WING
Benchmark Sticks With Buy on Wingstop After Q4 Beat; $320 Target Intact
WING

Benchmark reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $320.00 price target on Wingstop (WING) after the company reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results that outperformed consensus on same-store sales and profitability metrics. Management flagged two strategic priorities - broader use of its Wingstop Smart Kitchen platform and a mid-year launch of the Club Wingstop loyalty program into a 60 million customer database - as drivers for improvement in the second half of fiscal 2026.

Key Points

  • Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating and $320.00 price target on Wingstop following its fiscal Q4 2025 results, implying about 20% upside from a $266.69 price.
  • Q4 results: $176 million revenue, 24.4% restaurant-level operating margin (up 200 basis points year-over-year), -5.6% systemwide same-store sales (better than -6.7% consensus), $1.00 adjusted EPS (beat by $0.17), and $62 million adjusted EBITDA (vs $58 million estimate).
  • Management highlighted two strategic initiatives to drive recovery in H2 fiscal 2026: broader deployment of the Wingstop Smart Kitchen platform and the mid-year launch of Club Wingstop into a 60 million customer database.

Benchmark has maintained a Buy recommendation on Wingstop Inc. and kept its price objective at $320.00 following the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 report. That price target implies roughly 20% upside from the referenced trading price of $266.69, although InvestingPro data indicates the share price is trading slightly above its Fair Value.

Wingstop’s fourth-quarter performance surpassed expectations on several fronts. Total revenue for the period was reported at $176 million. Restaurant-level operating margin expanded to 24.4%, a 200 basis-point improvement relative to the prior year. Systemwide same-store sales declined 5.6%, which was a smaller fall than the consensus projection of a 6.7% decline.

On the profitability side, adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.00, beating consensus estimates by $0.17, a result Benchmark and the company attributed in part to cost efficiencies. Adjusted EBITDA was $62 million, topping the $58 million analysts had forecast.

Management outlined two strategic initiatives it expects will help drive business momentum in the latter half of fiscal 2026. First, the company plans to more fully leverage its Wingstop Smart Kitchen platform to accelerate speed of service. Second, Wingstop intends to introduce its inaugural loyalty program, Club Wingstop, around mid-year and enroll it into a 60 million customer database.

Several other sell-side firms have issued note updates following the quarter. Truist Securities raised its price target to $375 while keeping a Buy rating. RBC Capital highlighted that Wingstop’s same-store sales outperformed consensus by 113 basis points and that EBITDA exceeded expectations by 6.7%, though RBC trimmed its own price target to $340 citing softer trends anticipated in the first quarter. Guggenheim raised its price target to $315, citing the company’s technology initiatives and upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates. Stifel increased its target to $325 and pointed to the national rollout of the Club Wingstop loyalty program in 2026 as a meaningful catalyst. Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an Outperform rating with a $350 price target, noting an easing of macro headwinds that could be supportive over time.

Operationally, the company reported that the Smart Kitchen rollout across the U.S. has produced a mid-single-digit sales uplift. Tests of the nascent loyalty program in the fourth quarter showed a 7% increase in customer frequency. Taken together, those program-level results were cited as evidence that Wingstop is making operational progress heading into 2026.


Context and next steps

Investors will likely watch the pace of the Club Wingstop rollout and additional data from Smart Kitchen deployments closely, as those initiatives are positioned by management as the primary drivers of improvement in the back half of fiscal 2026. Near-term results, including first-quarter trends referenced by some analysts, will also factor into how the street updates earnings and valuation assumptions.

Risks

  • Near-term softness in first-quarter trends could pressure analyst assumptions and price targets, as noted by RBC lowering its target despite the quarter’s outperformance - impacts restaurant and investor sentiment sectors.
  • Execution risk tied to scaling the Smart Kitchen platform and rolling out the Club Wingstop loyalty program nationally - these initiatives must deliver the expected sales lift to support forecasts in restaurants and consumer tech adoption.
  • Macroeconomic headwinds remain a factor; easing conditions were cited as beneficial by Bernstein SocGen Group, implying that a re-tightening could negatively affect consumer spending and Wingstop’s sales recovery.

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