Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

Benchmark Lowers Hillman Solutions Price Target After Q4 Revenue Shortfall

Analyst trims estimates and keeps a Buy rating as the stock reacts to a modest downward outlook and weather-related headwinds

By Marcus Reed HLMN
Benchmark Lowers Hillman Solutions Price Target After Q4 Revenue Shortfall
HLMN

Benchmark reduced its 12-month price target for Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: HLMN) to $14 from $15 while retaining a Buy rating, following the company's fourth-quarter 2025 results. The adjustment reflects small cuts to revenue and EBITDA expectations and a five-cent downward revision to earnings forecasts for both this year and next. The stock fell sharply after the outlook tweaks and a revenue miss, prompting investor scrutiny of the company’s near-term performance.

Key Points

  • Benchmark cut Hillman Solutions’ price target to $14 from $15 while retaining a Buy rating after the company’s Q4 2025 results.
  • The stock fell more than 10% on minor outlook adjustments that translated into low-to-mid-single-digit reductions in consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates; shares declined 13% over the prior week.
  • Hillman met Q4 EPS expectations at $0.10 but reported revenue of $365.1 million versus an anticipated $371.69 million; gross margins remain strong near 49%.

Benchmark on Thursday lowered its price objective for Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: HLMN) to $14 from $15, but the firm left its Buy rating intact. The analyst move came after Hillman released fourth-quarter 2025 results earlier in the week that broadly matched consensus expectations on the bottom line.

The shares reacted negatively to modest revisions in guidance and to small cuts in analyst forecasts. After Benchmark’s adjustment and accompanying reductions to the outlook, Hillman’s stock slid by more than 10% on the day. Over the past week the shares have dropped 13%, narrowing the gap between the company’s roughly $1.79 billion market value and the Fair Value assessment flagged by InvestingPro analysis as suggesting the company may be undervalued.

Benchmark trimmed its earnings estimates by $0.05 for both the current fiscal year and the following year. The firm explicitly reduced its $1-per-share price target to reflect those lower forecasts. In addition, InvestingPro Tips indicate that three analysts have recently pared back their earnings projections for the upcoming period.

Despite the downward revisions, Hillman continues to report strong gross profit margins, which remain near 49%. Benchmark reiterated its view that the repair and remodeling segment remains the preferred subset of the residential construction market for the company. The research note also referenced the stock’s valuation before the recent pullback as context for the firm’s outlook.

Benchmark described the start of the year as slow, citing weather-related pressures among factors contributing to a conservative near-term outlook for the business. Those operational headwinds were highlighted as part of the rationale for the more cautious stance on near-term estimates.

The underlying company results showed a mixed picture in the fourth quarter of 2025. Hillman reported earnings per share of $0.10, in line with analyst expectations, but fell short on revenue. The company posted revenue of $365.1 million versus an expected $371.69 million, a shortfall that market participants flagged as a concern.

Investors and analysts are monitoring how Hillman will respond to the revenue miss in future quarters. The company’s recent disclosure underscored the importance of meeting both EPS and revenue targets to maintain investor confidence. For those seeking deeper research, Pro Research Reports covering HLMN and more than 1,400 U.S. equities are available to subscribers.


Contextual takeaway: Benchmark’s actions reflect modest but material tweaks to the company’s near-term financial profile, with the market reacting more sharply than the changes themselves. The combination of analyst downgrades, a revenue miss, and seasonal or weather-related pressures on the business has increased scrutiny on Hillman’s execution in upcoming quarters.

Risks

  • Revenue shortfall - Hillman missed revenue expectations in Q4 2025, which may pressure investor confidence and future guidance.
  • Weather-related and seasonal headwinds - Benchmark cited a slow start to the year partly driven by weather pressures, creating uncertainty for near-term performance.
  • Analyst downward revisions - Multiple analysts have trimmed earnings forecasts, and Benchmark reduced earnings estimates by $0.05 for both this year and next, indicating potential downside to consensus targets.

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