Overview
Barclays has initiated coverage of Pfizer Inc. with an underweight rating and a $25 price target, positioning that benchmark below the stock's most recent trading level of $26.86. The initiation highlights an upcoming period of significant patent expirations and a company strategy centered on deleveraging. At the same time, InvestingPro data assigns Pfizer a Fair Value of $31.68, a figure that suggests a different view of the shares' intrinsic valuation.
Barclays' view and catalyst timing
Analyst Carter Gould, in the initiation note, flagged a difficult stretch for the company as major losses of exclusivity commence this year and intensify through 2028. Barclays also pointed to early top-line results from the VESPER-3 study, with the firm noting those data have already been released and that the next relevant update is scheduled for ADA 2026 in June. Given that sequencing of clinical information, Barclays expects Pfizer shares to be largely range-bound until further updates are provided.
Barclays published the coverage initiation on Thursday and attached a $25 price target to the underweight, a level that implies downside from the current market price cited in the initiation.
Balance sheet and shareholder returns
The initiation also emphasizes Pfizer's near-term focus on deleveraging. The company carries a reported debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, a metric Barclays cited when discussing the firm’s capital allocation priorities. Despite those headwinds, InvestingPro Tips point out that Pfizer has sustained dividend payments for 56 consecutive years and currently offers a 6.4% dividend yield.
Recent financials and independent price targets
Pfizer reported fourth-quarter revenue of $17.6 billion, ahead of the consensus estimate of $16.6 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.66, surpassing the forecasted $0.58. In the wake of these results, other firms have expressed differing valuations: Freedom Capital Markets revised its price target for Pfizer to $33 while noting ongoing pressure from declining COVID-related sales, and Bernstein is maintaining a Market Perform rating with a $30 price target.
Pipeline and other corporate initiatives
Pfizer has sought Food and Drug Administration approval for its hemophilia therapy HYMPAVZI for younger patients, with a decision expected in the second quarter of 2026. Separately, the company rolled out the TrumpRx program, which the company describes as offering discounts of up to 85% on a range of medicines as part of efforts to reduce prescription drug costs for U.S. patients.
What Barclays expects next
Barclays’ initiation frames the near-term outlook around a sequence of exclusivity losses and a period of management emphasis on reducing leverage. With early VESPER-3 results already top-lined and a next update due in June at ADA 2026, the bank anticipates muted share movement until further clinical or corporate developments materialize.
Summary takeaway
Investors face contrasting signals: Barclays' underweight and $25 price target imply downside pressure tied to patent expirations and balance sheet priorities, while InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment and the company's recent earnings beat offer counterpoints. Upcoming clinical updates and regulatory decisions, including the FDA timing for HYMPAVZI, will likely be watched closely for directional cues.
Key points and risks sections follow below.
Key points
- Barclays initiated coverage with an underweight rating and a $25 price target, published on Thursday.
- Major losses of exclusivity are expected to begin this year and accelerate through 2028, per analyst Carter Gould.
- Pfizer reported Q4 revenue of $17.6 billion and EPS of $0.66, both above consensus estimates; other firms hold differing price targets ($33 from Freedom Capital Markets, $30 from Bernstein).
Risks and uncertainties
- Patent expirations and subsequent revenue erosion could pressure the pharmaceutical sector and firms dependent on branded product exclusivity.
- Management's focus on deleveraging, reflected in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, could constrain near-term capital allocation decisions that affect equity investors.
- Clinical and regulatory timing - including the ADA 2026 update in June and the FDA decision on HYMPAVZI expected in Q2 2026 - introduces event-driven volatility for the stock and related healthcare names.
Final note
The differing valuations and ongoing program updates suggest market participants will monitor both corporate financial strategy and pipeline milestones closely. Until those updates arrive, Barclays expects the shares to remain largely range-bound.