MADRID, April 6 - New survey data released on Monday show the ruling Socialist Party in Spain increasing its share of voter support, a trend linked in the polls to Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s firm objections to what he has called an illegal and reckless U.S.-Israeli offensive on Iran. The far-right Vox party - which publicly supports the strikes and is described as closely allied with U.S. President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement - has seen its support decline in the same surveys.
The polls underscore the political impact of Sanchez’s decisions in recent days, including closing Spanish airspace to U.S. planes involved in the strikes and banning those aircraft from using jointly operated military bases in southern Spain. Vox has strongly criticised Sanchez’s position.
A state poll earlier last month by CIS found that 85% of respondents rejected the war. Monday’s fresh results came from two separate pollsters. Sigma Dos, conducting a survey for the newspaper El Mundo, reported the Socialists at 27.7% of voting intention, up from 26.4% the previous month. That rise narrows the margin between the Socialists and the conservative People’s Party (PP).
The 40dB poll for El Pais put the Socialists at 28.6%, an increase from 27.7% recorded previously. Both polls show Vox slipping: Sigma Dos measured Vox at 17.1% in April, down from 18.3%, while the 40dB survey recorded a marginal fall of 0.1 percentage point to 18.7%.
The PP led both surveys, taking 32.5% in the Sigma Dos poll and 31.1% in the 40dB poll, each a gain of less than one percentage point. The PP has accused Sanchez of harming transatlantic ties and has not publicly denounced either Trump or Israel, even as its leader has echoed the "no to war" slogan.
A notable pattern in the data is a migration of voting intention away from the parties at the extremes of the political spectrum and toward the two main mainstream parties. The PP appears to be retaining some voters who might otherwise have moved to Vox, while the Socialists are absorbing some former supporters of their hard-left junior coalition partner, Sumar, according to the polls.
Despite these shifts, the electorate remains fragmented and coalition-building would still be required to secure a government. Both surveys indicate that, if an election were held now, a right-wing majority would be possible.
The next general election is scheduled for August 2027. Each of the two recent surveys polled roughly 2,000 people and reported margins of error of 2.2%.
Key points
- The governing Socialist Party has increased its share of voting intention in two recent polls, linked in part to Prime Minister Sanchez’s opposition to the strikes on Iran.
- Far-right Vox has seen a decline in support across the two surveys, while the conservative People’s Party remains the single largest party in voting intention.
- Voter movement from the political extremes to mainstream parties may affect sectors tied to defence and aviation, given decisions such as restricting U.S. military flights and base use.
Risks and uncertainties
- Coalition uncertainty - A fragmented vote share means coalitions are still necessary to form a government, creating political unpredictability for policy and markets.
- Transatlantic strain - Accusations by the PP that Sanchez has damaged transatlantic relations introduce uncertainty for defence and international cooperation sectors.
- Poll variability - Each survey has a margin of error of 2.2% and sampled around 2,000 people, leaving room for shifts in voting intention as the next election approaches.