S&P Global Ratings on Thursday awarded Space Exploration Technologies Corp. a BBB issuer credit rating and set a stable outlook following the company’s initial public offering. The agency said the rating reflects a view that SpaceX should keep adjusted leverage under 2.0x even as it pursues aggressive investment across its business lines.
In its rationale, S&P weighed SpaceX’s established capabilities in space launch and growing connectivity operations against a nascent artificial intelligence unit that carries significant uncertainty. The ratings agency characterizes the space segment as solid, with modest medium-term growth prospects and a strong competitive moat. The connectivity business, according to S&P, presents notable upside driven by enterprise and government demand. By contrast, the AI business faces challenges - heavy capital requirements, multiple well-capitalized competitors, and an as-yet unclear path to monetization.
SpaceX’s operations are described by S&P as three interlinked segments anchored by the company’s launch platform. The agency noted the company has conducted more than 600 Falcon 9 launches with a 99% success rate and has lowered launch costs by more than 90% compared with traditional single-use rockets. In connectivity, S&P reported deployment of over 10,000 low-Earth-orbit satellites and service to more than 12 million broadband subscribers worldwide as of June 4, 2026. More recently, the AI segment disclosed lease agreements with Anthropic and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) for compute capacity at prices S&P described as significantly above current market rates.
On the financial outlook, S&P expects elevated capital expenditure will produce negative free cash flow through 2029. The ratings agency forecasts adjusted leverage peaking at 1.2x in 2028 before improving as connectivity revenue expands and as AI monetization efforts begin to contribute. S&P also anticipates the company will need to tap debt and equity markets for additional capital to cover cash shortfalls, while noting that proceeds from the IPO will partially offset the need for external financing. The company’s stated financial policy aims for investment-grade ratings and a commitment to keeping adjusted leverage in line with rating thresholds.
S&P warned that a failure to achieve growth targets while maintaining heavy investment that continues to produce negative free cash flow without a credible path to future earnings could prompt a downgrade. Conversely, an upgrade would hinge on an improved business profile and a demonstrated commitment to keeping adjusted leverage below 1.5x, coupled with measurable progress toward sustained positive free cash flow.
The S&P action follows similar assessments from other ratings firms: Moody’s assigned a Baa1 rating with a stable outlook and Fitch gave a BBB+ rating with a stable outlook. S&P’s commentary highlights the trade-offs SpaceX faces between financing rapid expansion across launch, connectivity, and AI and delivering the cash generation required to support a stronger rating over time.