Jefferies expects materially different outcomes for two listed specialty chemicals and agrochemical contract manufacturers in the March 2026 quarter. The firm projects Navin Fluorine International will deliver materially stronger results, while PI Industries is likely to report a quarter marked by revenue and EBITDA contraction.
For Navin Fluorine, Jefferies models revenue growth of 21% for the March quarter, with EBITDA expanding by 52%. The research note points to expansion of Project Nectar and sustained demand for R32 refrigerant as primary drivers. Within the company, Specialty Chemicals revenues are forecast to increase 23% year-over-year. Jefferies also anticipates CDMO revenues to rise by 16% despite a strong prior-year base, attributing part of that improvement to the ramp-up of the Fermion contract. High-purity products - captured in HPP revenues - are expected to climb 21% as R32 strength supports volumes, and the firm notes that backward integration into AHF capacity could provide room for margin expansion.
By contrast, PI Industries is forecast to record an 11% decline in revenue and a 22% drop in EBITDA for the same quarter. The firm expects CSM export revenues to fall 15%, citing weak performance in certain key products and a decline in exports of newer molecules. Pharma revenues are modeled to decrease 32% on account of a strong comparative base, while domestic revenues are projected to grow by 10%.
Jefferies places these company-specific forecasts into a wider market context. Major global crop protection innovators have guided for low-single-digit revenue growth in 2026, and the note anticipates that pricing pressures will persist through the year. China-related dynamics feature in the analysis: Chinese crop protection export volumes are reported to have risen by about 20% in 2026 even as export prices remain near 10-year lows.
Input cost inflation is another focal point. Jefferies highlights supply disruptions stemming from Middle East conflict as a factor pushing costs higher during the March quarter. The firm cites quarter-on-quarter rises in key inputs of roughly 10% for Glyphosate, 29% for Urea, and 6% for DAP.
On the refrigerant and HFC front, Jefferies notes that HFC export volumes from India increased by 10% during the March quarter, with blended realizations also up 10%. The research suggests Indian manufacturers have picked up export share as robust domestic pricing curbed Chinese exports.
Within its sector coverage, Jefferies singles out Navin Fluorine as its top pick.
Bottom line - Jefferies expects Navin Fluorine to register strong top-line and margin performance in the March 2026 quarter, while PI Industries faces pressure from weaker exports and a challenging comparative base. Broader pressures in crop protection pricing and rising input costs add complexity to the outlook across the chemicals and agrochemical supply chains.