Fitch Ratings has set a BBB+ Long-Term Issuer Default Rating for Space Exploration Technologies Corp., and has assigned the same BBB+ grade to the company’s senior unsecured revolving credit facility. The rating carries a stable outlook.
In explaining the rating, Fitch emphasized SpaceX’s leading role in commercial launch operations and the rising contribution from connectivity services and a terrestrial AI compute business. The agency expects the company’s EBITDA growth to keep leverage at or below management’s stated target range of 2x-3x during the forecast period.
Fitch noted that SpaceX holds more than $90 billion in pro forma liquidity and has demonstrated access to capital markets. The rating statement also highlighted the firm’s cost advantages from rocket reusability and its vertical integration across engines, avionics, satellites, and user terminals - a structure Fitch said removes supplier margin and has helped the company deliver more than 80% of global mass to orbit since 2023.
Starlink was identified as a growing recurring revenue stream, with more than 12 million consumer subscribers as of June 4, according to Fitch. That consumer base is complemented by enterprise, government, and mobile network operator contracts. Government launch and defense work, plus the terrestrial AI compute business, were cited as contributors to revenue visibility.
Fitch observed that SpaceX has raised $85.7 billion in a public offering and expects the company would defer discretionary capital spending if access to capital tightened, a step that would preserve liquidity and help steer the business toward positive free cash flow.
At the same time, Fitch outlined limits to the rating. Governance is highly concentrated in one individual - Elon Musk - who serves as chairman, chief executive officer, and chief technology officer and controls nearly all super-voting shares at a 10-to-1 ratio without a sunset provision. Under the current structure, he cannot be removed without his consent. Fitch said the concentration of voting control and executive power, coupled with limited board independence and no voting sunset, constrains the rating by two notches relative to the level otherwise supported by SpaceX’s operating and financial profile.
Other rating pressures identified include execution risk tied to Starship development and the sheer size of SpaceX’s capital program. Fitch’s rating baseline assumes that Starship achieves operational capability in the second half of this year and will be used to deploy next-generation Starlink satellites that Fitch deems necessary for connectivity-driven revenue growth in 2027.
Fitch reiterated that SpaceX targets gross EBITDA leverage of 2x-3x and plans to hold a minimum cash balance of $25 billion, with no plans for shareholder distributions. The company also plans a $60 billion equity-funded acquisition of Cursor. President and chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell was noted for overseeing operations for over two decades.
Summary - Fitch assigned SpaceX a BBB+ long-term rating and a stable outlook, citing market leadership in launches, growing connectivity and AI-compute revenue streams, substantial pro forma liquidity, and manageable leverage expectations. Constraints include concentrated governance, Starship execution risk, and the large capital program.