BTIG initiated analyst coverage of Adobe and Figma on Monday, assigning Neutral ratings to both software companies while highlighting their entrenched market positions and the complex questions raised by artificial intelligence.
In a note, analyst Nick Altmann described Adobe as having "pioneered key categories in content creation, digital marketing, and document management," and cited a fiscal 2025 revenue figure of about $24 billion along with a "margin profile few software companies may ever be able to match." Despite that assessment, BTIG flagged AI as a driving source of uncertainty for Adobe's longer-term revenue and margin trajectory.
BTIG pointed out that Adobe's shares have declined roughly 55% over the past five years even though the company has maintained resilient growth and steady margins. A central concern for the firm is the potential impact of generative AI on Creative Cloud, which accounts for roughly 60% of Adobe's revenue. While BTIG said it is "encouraged by Adobe's AI strategy," praising the Firefly model and the company's open platform approach, the firm cautioned that AI-related threats are "real, but very nuanced," particularly with respect to future pricing power and competitive dynamics.
On Figma, BTIG acknowledged the company's role in shaping modern UI and UX workflows and noted a fiscal 2025 run-rate revenue in excess of $1 billion coupled with 41% growth. Early usage metrics for Figma's AI-powered "Make" features led BTIG to be "constructive on potential AI monetization in the near term," with the firm pointing to rising weekly active usage and partnerships with frontier labs as supportive signals.
Nevertheless, BTIG stressed that the path to monetization remains unclear. The note described monetization levels as "ambiguous," and said it is "difficult to decipher the degree to which monetization can happen in the near term."
Both companies received Neutral ratings, reflecting the balance between established market advantages and outstanding questions about how generative AI will affect revenue growth, pricing power, and margins going forward.
Contextual note - the commentary included specific fiscal metrics and product exposures cited above, which formed the basis for BTIG's stance. The firm drew distinctions between encouraging early AI indicators and the unresolved commercial implications for both firms.