Bank of America’s most recent Trendspotter report shows food and beverage input costs accelerating in February for companies covered in the bank’s packaged food and beverages universe.
The report calculates spot inflation at 3.7% year-over-year for February, representing a 40 basis-point jump from January. This increase reflects a low-single-digit inflation environment in the coverage set, with several specific commodities driving the change.
Drivers and decliners
BofA identifies higher prices for turkey - attributed to avian flu - along with vegetables and milk as the primary contributors to the February rise in spot inflation. Offsetting some of that upward pressure, the bank observed deflation in eggs, cocoa, and orange juice during the month.
Hedged basket and month-to-month movement
The bank’s estimate for a T-9 hedged basket of commodities was up 3.8% year-over-year in February, a modest 2 basis-point increase from the prior month. That hedged basket figure provides a slightly different lens on input cost trends compared with the spot measure.
Commodities to watch and recent developments
BofA highlights cocoa, coffee, beef, and aluminum as commodities to monitor heading into 2026. The report also cautions that the February results do not reflect more recent price increases tied to the Iran conflict; the bank expects that the conflict will place upward pressure on rates in the following month.
Taken together, the Trendspotter figures indicate an uptick in input-cost inflation for packaged food and beverage companies in February, with a narrower set of commodities exerting the bulk of the monthly increase and other items providing offsetting declines.