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Stock Markets April 9, 2026 01:20 PM

Aya demand index for travel RNs dips 2.3% as job listings climb 3.9%

Weekly readings show modest rate gains and a five-week rebound that Jefferies says signals an end to the winter trough

By Hana Yamamoto
Aya demand index for travel RNs dips 2.3% as job listings climb 3.9%

Jefferies data show the Aya Demand Index for travel registered nurses fell 2.3% week-over-week after a prior 2.8% rise, while Aya Healthcare job postings increased 3.9% to 32,599 roles. The JEF Bill Rate Index ticked up 0.1% to about $2,210 per week and projects modest quarterly bill-rate increases for early 2026. Jefferies highlights an 11% cumulative gain over five weeks that it views as the end of the typical post-winter pullback.

Key Points

  • Aya Demand Index fell 2.3% week-over-week but remains about 36% below pre-COVID levels.
  • Open roles through Aya Healthcare rose 3.9% to 32,599 positions, indicating increased listings despite the index decline.
  • The JEF Bill Rate Index rose 0.1% to roughly $2,210 per week and points to modest quarterly bill-rate increases in early 2026.

Jefferies released its latest measures for the travel registered nurse market on Thursday, reporting a 2.3% week-over-week decline in the Aya Demand Index following a 2.8% increase the week before. The index remains roughly 36% below pre-COVID levels, according to the report.

At the same time, openings listed through Aya Healthcare rose 3.9% from the prior week, reaching 32,599 available positions. The divergence between the demand index and open roles points to a mixed near-term picture in staffing activity.

The JEF Bill Rate Index, which aggregates several rate sources, inched up 0.1% week-over-week to approximately $2,210 per week, reversing a 0.2% decline recorded the previous week. Jefferies also indicated the bill-rate series reflects projected quarterly increases of 1.1% for the first quarter of 2026 and 0.2% for the second quarter of 2026.

Jefferies noted the Aya Index has accumulated an 11% gain over the past five weeks. That advance follows a 10% pullback stretched across nine weeks, which itself came after an initial 1.7% rise on January 6, 2026. The firm interprets the recent stability and upward movement as evidence that the standard post-winter seasonal spike and subsequent pullback have finished.

Separately, guidance from AMN Healthcare for first-quarter 2026 calls for quarter-over-quarter revenue growth of 4% to 6% in its Nurse and Allied segment, excluding business related to strikes that the company expects during the quarter.

Key statistics from the release include:

  • Aya Demand Index: -2.3% week-over-week; about 36% below pre-COVID levels.
  • Aya Healthcare job postings: +3.9% week-over-week to 32,599 positions.
  • JEF Bill Rate Index: +0.1% week-over-week to roughly $2,210 per week; projected quarterly increases of 1.1% for Q1 2026 and 0.2% for Q2 2026.
  • Aya Index cumulative move: +11% over five weeks following a prior 10% nine-week pullback.

The data set provides market participants with a snapshot of demand, supply of posted assignments, and bill-rate movement in the travel nurse market as it moves through the seasonal cycle.

Risks

  • Indexes and job postings show short-term divergence, creating uncertainty for staffing revenue trends - impacts healthcare staffing and provider margins.
  • Bill-rate growth is modest and could be sensitive to near-term demand shifts, affecting pay rates for travel nurses and staffing cost structures - impacts hospital and healthcare labor markets.
  • Seasonal volatility remains a factor; previous multi-week pullbacks underline possible reversals even after the recent five-week gain - impacts investors tracking staffing firm performance.

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