Commodity analyst Argus reduced its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest to 23.5 million metric tons, down from the 23.9 million ton projection it issued in December, the firm said on Monday. Despite the cut, the latest estimate would be Ukraine’s largest wheat crop since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 and remains above the four-year average of 22 million tons.
Argus attributed the lower tonnage primarily to a smaller expected harvested area. The firm now anticipates 5.1 million hectares will be harvested for wheat in 2026, compared with its previous 5.2 million hectare projection. Argus kept its yield assumption unchanged at 4.6 tons per hectare, a level slightly higher than the 2025/26 yield of 4.55 tons per hectare and above the five-year average yield of 4.42 tons per hectare.
A separate local consultancy, APK-Inform, also trimmed its 2026 wheat forecast on Monday, putting the crop at 19.9 million tons.
Argus noted that winter conditions included cold snaps and extremely low temperatures, but that warmer weather beginning in February, together with fertilizer use, improved prospects for winter wheat. The firm said it shared these updated crop forecasts with clients last week and indicated that projections could be revised again in June following updates to 2026/27 planted-area figures from Ukraine’s State Statistics Service.
Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain exporters, and the size of its wheat crop is closely watched by international commodity markets. While Argus’s revised figure is lower than its December estimate, it still represents a rebound relative to recent years and remains above recent averages.
Given the remaining uncertainties around planted area and the potential for further forecast adjustments in June, market participants and trade observers will likely monitor official statistics and seasonal weather developments closely in the coming months.